XB1 3 Million Units Sold

[cidbahamut]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

Rumor mills, that's what.

[Icemage]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

Rumor mills, that's what.

I wish.

January NPD 2014:

PS4: ~271K
XB1: ~143K
PS3: ~54K
WiiU: ~49K
360: ~48K

EDIT: Updated figures, still awful.

PS4: 271K
XB1: 141K
3DS: ~97K
PS3: ~53.5K
Wii U: 49K
360: ~48.5K
Vita: <17K


Icemage

[Malacite]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

Ouch, bad news bears for Wii U.

Sony's really going strong then, yikes.

[Aeni]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

I wish.

January NPD 2014:

PS4: ~271K
XB1: ~143K
PS3: ~54K
WiiU: ~49K
360: ~48K

EDIT: Updated figures, still awful.

PS4: 271K
XB1: 141K
3DS: ~97K
PS3: ~53.5K
Wii U: 49K
360: ~48.5K
Vita: <17K


Icemage

Are these just NA sales or worldwide?

[Icemage]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

Are these just NA sales or worldwide?

NPD covers USA (not including Mexico or Canada).

The picture is worse for Microsoft and Nintendo in Europe, if that's even possible (i.e. if the USA numbers are this bad, how awful there the sales figures in Europe?). PS4 is the only supply-constrained console right now, and it's even questionable if it's seriously constrained right now. XB1 and Wii U haven't been supply constrained since at least early December.

At a rough guess, looking at worldwide sales trends, PS4 is closing in on 5M (and if it hasn't already passed 5M, Japan launch on Feb. 22 will definitely put it over 5M). Microsoft was ~2.8M at end of 2013, so if they sold through 141K in their strongest territory in January, they're probably not much past 3M right now with Xbox One. Wii U might actually not even make it to Nintendo's heavily reduced forecast of 2.8M shipped in fiscal 2013; (that's just a gut reaction... I'd have to do some heavy numbers research and take a wild guess at Europe numbers to verify).


Icemage

[Malacite]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

You mean Sony might be holding back supply on purpose to artificially spike demand?

i.e. they're using the Eric Cartman strategy?


EDIT: Actually XB1 was about 4.1m last I saw for end of 2013.

[ItazuraNhomango]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

You mean Sony might be holding back supply on purpose to artificially spike demand?

No, you fool. Mass manufacturing is really hard; it's not like you just tell the robots to run faster and get a million more units off the line a month. (And, I say that as someone who currently programs custom industrial robots for a living)

Predicting how much you need to stockpile before launching a new consumer product and balancing that hording with risk of competition jumping too ahead of you? Even harder. It isn't science--it's not even an art--it's practically black magic.

[Malacite]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

Uh, try reading what IM wrote before insulting me?

He said he questioned if the supply really is as constrained as it's being made out to be, which would mean that Sony is in fact holding back product to spike demand. I for one doubt that's the case given their financial situation and the potential blowback that would result if word got out.

[ItazuraNhomango]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

Uh, try reading what IM wrote before insulting me?

He said he questioned if the supply really is as constrained as it's being made out to be, which would mean that Sony is in fact holding back product to spike demand. I for one doubt that's the case given their financial situation and the potential blowback that would result if word got out.

I read it differently:

PS4 is the only supply-constrained console right now, and it's even questionable if it's seriously constrained right now. XB1 and Wii U haven't been supply constrained since at least early December.

I read that as:
A. MS and Nintendo are selling as many consoles as possible given the appeal at the current price points. (As in, they can't do any better without dropping prices or somehow increasing the desirability of their products.)
B. Sony isn't--its sales volume is (or was) limited by number of units available for sale.
C. Icemage is speculating that Sony's supply is catching up with demand, so the limit will be lifted, meaning Sony will see an increase in volume.

I don't see Icemage implying Sony is manipulating supply to give appearance of scarcity in an attempt to increase PS4's appeal. He is pretty much saying that Sony can sell more just by shipping more units--and that it just may do that very, very soon.

[Icemage]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

ItazuraNhomango has it right. I'm not implying that Sony is deliberately shorting supply. They're sending supply to 53 countries right now, and the PS4 is basically impossible to find in basically any country not called Brazil or Mexico (both countries where import taxes cause the price to be insane). Sony doesn't appear to need any extra reasons to sell PS4s besides the "runs all the newest games better than 360/PS3 + $100 cheaper than Xbox One".

XB1 and Wii U are both readily available at retail, and have been for the best part of the last two months. Wii U was never out of stock even in the final days of Christmas shopping, and Xbox One was basically readily available throughout the month of December. By January, you were basically guaranteed to find either console in stock at any big box or dedicated gaming retailer, and both were also readily available online.

By comparison, the PS4, despite getting a fair amount of shipments, was simply out of stock basically everywhere in the USA in January, not because Sony didn't send any out, but because they're basically sold on the spot the moment they arrive in the retail channel. Actually, it's still out of stock most of the time even now in February - shipments come in, and then they disappear a day later because they're all sold.

Now, there is one case where Sony probably is holding back some units: the PS4 launches in Japan next week, and Sony need to stockpile some supply for that launch. It's anyone's guess how much they've reserved for pre-orders and launch sales in Japan, but 500K would be a good guesstimate. We know they have something like 1.2-1.4M units worth of PS4 production per month, and reports back in December indicated that Sony air-shipped a bunch of the PS4 stock that "should" have only made it to retail in January, so they'll actually have less units available in January than that 1M+ production/month would indicate. If they sold 271K in the USA and a similar number in Europe, plus a small number in other territories, that leaves a cushion of maybe 500K units they could skim off the top to send to Japan.

As for Microsoft, they've got another problem; even in countries where the XB1 hasn't officially launched yet such as Belgium, imported XB1 consoles still aren't selling very well. They need a price drop and a PR makeover stat, or they're going to lose a whole bunch of market share to the PS4 as the "more than half of my friends have console X" factor starts to kick in and draw in the less hardcore buyers.


Icemage

[ItazuraNhomango]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

They need a price drop and a PR makeover stat, or they're going to lose a whole bunch of market share to the PS4 as the "more than half of my friends have console X" factor starts to kick in and draw in the less hardcore buyers.

The game of consoles may be more complicated than that.

While install base is the most desirable (and useful) metric, there are other fronts of contention:
- Subscription uptake (for fees and for (probably most important) player usage data)
- ROI for publishers / studios.
- Secondary service uptake rate (e.g. Netflix)

The install base concept is also a bit deceptive, seeing how the devs would have easier time leveraging their effort to create PC and XB1 title together than any other combination of platforms. (Gaming PC is the only growth sector in the PC platform, I think.)

And, XB1 opens another avenue for the Microsoft brand, which it can leverage to create a(n eventually) seamless world of phone, computer (still somewhat relevant!), and entertainment dominated by itself.

Really, I think XB1 is just an mean to an end--a second test to see how to intertwine Microsoft and people's digital lives from the living room angle.

MS definitely would prefer to win the consoles' war, but it's playing for more than that. Much, much more.

[Malacite]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

Of course, we've known that for ages. Microsoft is a tech giant, they're in to far more pies than just gaming and will be for some time whereas Sony has fallen on hard times in nearly every single division apart from its Playstation brand. Unless I'm mistaken, MS is behind a lot of the voice recognition tech used in newer American cars for example, and I know for a fact they are working on more of that for use in our homes.

In other words, Sony has far more to lose than MS does if their system fails so this is a much needed boost for them in terms of finances but also morale.


I never actually said IM was implying the deliberate shortage, btw - I was asking for clarification to make sure I understood him right. And I have to agree with the whole console install base aspect. MS is banking entirely too hard (IMO) on their strategy of paying off 3rd parties for perks, like exclusive/timed DLC for stuff like Call of Duty. None of that's going to matter if more than half of someone's friends are on PS4. They are going to need to announce some more killer exclusives (not likely) and a price drop.

So far the only thing I've heard with regards to the latter is a $399 SKU that comes with a 1TB HDD, but no BD drive. That's probably not going to go over too well.

[ItazuraNhomango]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

Of course, we've known that for ages. Microsoft is a tech giant, they're in to far more pies than just gaming and will be for some time whereas Sony has fallen on hard times in nearly every single division apart from its Playstation brand. Unless I'm mistaken, MS is behind a lot of the voice recognition tech used in newer American cars for example, and I know for a fact they are working on more of that for use in our homes.

Let's not forget that Sony is also a "tech giant." (PS4 isn't exactly low tech, and neither is cell phone; Sony's R&D spending is around 460 billion Yen, or $USD 4.5 billion.)

As for "hard times in nearly every single division", I found Q3 (fiscal year 2013) data: http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/fina...q3_sonypre.pdf

It's divided up into "segments" (see slide 4), and most of which have improved operating income compared to Q3 FY2012.

Leading the pack in most improved is not "Games", but "Financial Services", with YoY increase of 13.6 billion Yen (vs Games' increase of 13.4 billion Yen). Biggest loser is "Devices" (-23.8 billion Yen operating income), but the one getting axed is the PC unit, which is (was?) a part of the Mobile Products and Communications (MP&C), which lost 12.6 billion Yen (which still an 8.8 billion Yen YoY improvement).

Q1-Q3 performance would give the crown to Games, though; +65.0 billion Yen improvement in operational income vs. Financial Services' 40.0 billion Yen.

Overall, Sony is profitable again, with (very much) improved performance over FY2012. It's doing fine in most segments, with only "Devices" being its major bleeder.

Product line wise, it's working to bring TV back to profitability (and tossing PC), and resigned to continued falling demand for cameras. (It wants to make up for this with 4K imaging hardware and such. Dream on, I say.) It is expecting to sell more phones and TVs in FY2013 than FY2012, though. Semiconductor suffered minor decrease in revenue, but decrease in capital expenditure more than offset that.


* * *

No clue if MS is doing voice recognition for cars or not; not sure if I care, since I never want to use those things. I wouldn't be surprised if Google is further ahead in turning cars into marketing platform than either MS or Apple, in any case.

[Malacite]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

Just recently I read that they were planning on gutting both their TV and PC divisions because they've been reporting heavy losses for years now (the company as a whole I mean). Their credit rating has been downgraded to an "F" and investing in Sony is being actively discouraged :/

EDIT: MS has been working on Voice Recognition for a while now, cars are just the start MS is trying to bring it into the home - kinect is only the beginning. Sony doing well again overall is news to me as well, as I've heard and read everything to the contrary. If it's true though I'm glad then, because Sony does come up with some pretty cool new stuff outside of just gaming and losing either company would suck (not that MS is in any sort of imminent danger).

Speaking of MS, isn't their CEO stepping down soon?

[ItazuraNhomango]

Re: XB1 3 Million Units Sold

Just recently I read that they were planning on gutting both their TV and PC divisions because they've been reporting heavy losses for years now (the company as a whole I mean). Their credit rating has been downgraded to an "F" and investing in Sony is being actively discouraged :/

Actually, Sony is selling its PC business, but keeping its TVs--its Imaging division is trying to jump ahead of the curve in the 4k business, so it's not exactly gutting TV.

EDIT: MS has been working on Voice Recognition for a while now, cars are just the start MS is trying to bring it into the home - kinect is only the beginning.

Long time? Yeah? I remember trying Apple's voice recognition on Macs with PowerPC CPUs. Hundreds of universities have been researching voice recognition as part of AI since ... forever?

Sony doing well again overall is news to me as well, as I've heard and read everything to the contrary.

I don't know how that can be the case since Sony released its Q3 results, unless you were reading how people 'feel' about Sony's prospect instead of informed discussions based on reasonable evidence (e.g. Sony's financial reports)

Speaking of MS, isn't their CEO stepping down soon?

MS already decided on a new one: some Indian dude.