It's Not Wii U, It's Me

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

Crysis 3 and Dead Space 3 are among EA's most recent financial failures. Dead Space isn't slated for another installment in light of it not selling five million copies and the forced inclusion of co-op didn't win them any friends in the horror demographic. Practically everyone is skeptical of Dragon Age III in light of DA2, ME3 and The Old Republic -and they have good reason to be. All of those IPs are on shaky ground, the acquisition of the Star Wars IP is likely an act of desperation to counteract much of that.

Tiger Woods is cancelled for the forseeable future on all platforms, NBA Live has bowed out two of the last three years. EA pretty much banks everything on FIFA and Madden now. I wouldn't be surprised if they cut NHL for lack of sales even though the series is well regarded. 2k and Sony are crushing EA Sports in the other places that matter. 2K owns the NBA front now an they have WWE locked down from their THQ acquisitions. 989's dominance in baseball is without question - even if its sadly all they do now we know Sony probably won't give it up. Activision seems to have NASCAR exclusivity. Not sure how much that matters, though, it hardly sells even here in NASCAR country.

As for mobile games, I think the bubble is pretty close to bursting there, so I have to wonder if people's interests will start to wane in EA's games there. The way indies are seeking refuge with Nintendo, Sony and Valve I can only assume the wisest of them are getting out before the bubble bursts. They're going back to making more substantial and less monetized games. Not to mention iOS is losing steam and Samsung and Google seem to have lots of other compelling attractions on their phones aside from games.

Much of this has led to a serious loss of revenue for EA, the departure of a CEO and they're probably looking for lots of ways to recoup their losses more than freeze Nintendo out.

EA has done a tremendous amount of damage to their brand. I have no doubts they'll survive it, though I do worry for the studios under their watch, Nintendo is also in the financial position to survive everything short of a nuke falling squarely on their headquarters. the worst case scenario for Nintendo is probably letting 3DS do the heavy lifting for another year - then again, Nintendo handhelds have always been the hardcore side of Nintendo - their console side hasn't focused on core games for three generations.

[Icemage]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

Crysis 3 and Dead Space 3 are among EA's most recent financial failures. Dead Space isn't slated for another installment in light of it not selling five million copies and the forced inclusion of co-op didn't win them any friends in the horror demographic. Practically everyone is skeptical of Dragon Age III in light of DA2, ME3 and The Old Republic -and they have good reason to be. All of those IPs are on shaky ground, the acquisition of the Star Wars IP is likely an act of desperation to counteract much of that.

Tiger Woods is cancelled for the forseeable future on all platforms, NBA Live has bowed out two of the last three years. EA pretty much banks everything on FIFA and Madden now. I wouldn't be surprised if they cut NHL for lack of sales even though the series is well regarded. 2k and Sony are crushing EA Sports in the other places that matter. 2K owns the NBA front now an they have WWE locked down from their THQ acquisitions, 989's dominance in baseball is without question - even if its sadly all they do now. Activision seems to have NASCAR exclusivity. Not sure how much that matters, though, it hardly sells even here in NASCAR country.

As for mobile games, I think the bubble is pretty close to bursting there. The way indies are seeking refuge with Nintendo, Sony and Valve I can only assume the wisest of them are getting out before the bubble bursts and going back to making more substantial and less monetized games.

All of this has led to a serious loss of revenue for EA, the departure of a CEO and they're probably looking for lots of ways to recoup their losses more than freeze Nintendo out.

EA has done a tremendous amount of damage to their brand. I have no doubts they'll survive it, though I do worry for the studios under their watch, Nintendo is also in the financial position to survive everything short of a nuke falling squarely on their headquarters. the worst case scenario for Nintendo is probably letting 3DS do the heavy lifting for another year - then again, Nintendo handhelds have always been the hardcore side of Nintendo - their console side hasn't focused on core games for three generations.

I like how you've cherry-picked the franchises. Losing Crysis or Dead Space means very little in the grand scheme of things to Nintendo. Losing FIFA, however, is a big problem, and so is Madden to a slightly lesser extent.

Love or hate sports franchises, there's a big buying demographic that focuses on them. FIFA by itself isn't going to single-handedly convince most people to buy a console, but not having it even available is a potential deal-breaker in a lot of parts of the world. Madden's the same way in the US. These are the people Nintendo needs to bring the Wii U out of its funk, and EA just slammed the door in their face.

I mean, for me personally, I suppose this is somewhat "good news" because I'm pretty sure I'll buy a Wii U at some point in the next year or so, so this will probably push the price down. Still makes me unhappy to see a console I want to buy losing support (and thereby hurting the console's chances of getting more good games).

I'd rather see Nintendo doing well and making smarter decisions so that the games I can buy for their console improve in quality and quantity, but wishing doesn't make it so.


Icemage

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

I like how you've cherry-picked the franchises. Losing Crysis or Dead Space means very little in the grand scheme of things to Nintendo. Losing FIFA, however, is a big problem, and so is Madden to a slightly lesser extent.

Listing a number of core franchises is cherry picking? I think its important to highlight that where EA is hurting and losing trust from core gamers. Sports gamer are mainstream and they are also decidedly casual. They're not core. The people for which FIFA and Madden are system sellers are also bear low-attach rates and might come out for CoD or Gears at best outside of the sports titles.

FIFA's quality is undisputed consistent, but it also has the benefit of competition from Winning Eleven. Yeah, competition - that thing EA hates having in sports. Madden has no competition and that's the only reason it succeeds. Easy to win when you're the only guy on the ballot, but it doesn't mean you're a winning personality.

I don't think any of this is good for Nintendo, but it might be prove to be a great opportunity for someone else if Nintendo can snatch victory from the internet's prophesied dooooooooom. I'd keep my eye on Ubi Soft, Deep Silver and Bethesda in particular. Two of those are not players with Nintendo right now, but they stand to become much bigger, influential players in the next generation and there's something to be said for the privately owned game corporations.

I would also not bet against 2k on anything in the coming generation... unless its a non-Borderlands Gearbox game, that is.

[Icemage]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

I don't think most people think of console purchases in the context of a single game (except extremely obsessed fans). That's why I drive home the point that FIFA and Madden aren't system sellers. However, their absence can be problematic.

It's not just casual gamers that play sports games. A lot of "core" gamers do too, particularly ones that are especially good like MLB The Show, NBA2K and FIFA. Individually, most of the EA games being off of the Wii U wouldn't hurt it, but collectively they impact a large fraction of the game buying public.

Ubisoft is still hanging on. I think they've decided that being the only major 3rd party publisher might have good payoff in the future (and/or maybe they're doing some arm-twisting for concessions even now to ensure their continued support).

Bethesda has basically zero chance of publishing on Wii U any time soon. Bethesda Softworks generally doesn't jump into a console platform until at least a year into its life cycle under the best of circumstances, probably due to the incubation time for their style of open world games. Given the massive technical challenge of putting an open world game on the Wii U as opposed to PS4 and likely the next Xbox, unless the market install base for Wii U dramatically improves and stops being dominated by people like Etra who will only buy Nintendo software, Bethesda will possibly never put a game on the platform.

ZeniMax (Bethesda's owner) isn't likely to put any of their other studios on the Wii U either. id Software might do it because Carmack is a tech junkie and likes cool things, but I doubt the suits at ZeniMax would agree with the business case for doing so. Arkane Studios (Dishonored) might do it, but will run into the same headwind. Again, it all depends on whether Nintendo can attract an audience willing to buy games without the Nintendo branding to the Wii U.

Deep Silver/Koch Media is harder to read. Their game selection is all over the place, but tends to stay with platforms that already have large install bases. I don't see them coming to the Wii U any time soon (again, assuming Nintendo doesn't manage to turn things around).

I just hope Nintendo knows what they're doing this year. They've got a lot of competition entering the marketplace, not just for the Wii U but for the 3DS. Just because they've got the cash reserves to survive even a disastrous console generation, that's cold comfort to me if it means that I'm going to have to choose to pull the trigger on buying a console with very few exclusives.

EDIT: Good heavens, I'd completely forgotten one other small thing. EA currently holds an exclusive license to the Star Wars franchise.


Icemage

[cidbahamut]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

I still have faith that Nintendo will produce some great software for the Wii U, but they'd better get their butts in gear and compete for some mindshare because they're almost out of time. Microsoft announces their new hardware in five days, Sony is already rolling the PS4 hypetrain into gear (and still heavily supporting the PS3), and it really feels like Nintendo has missed the boat on their chance to solidify an install base before the competition arrives.

Forget the competition, Nintendo missed the boat on solidifying an install base period. Without the strong launch lineup the install base is small, which means third parties won't go near it, which in turn keeps the install base small because of the limited library. It's a self-perpetuating cycle. Unless they release the most sublime game to ever grace the market, I don't see them pulling out of this tailspin.

[Malacite]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

I would actually like the Wii U to be Dreamcast 2.0. Then maybe Nintendo would stop with lolgimicks and push for a decent system on par with what's being released by competitors. Not to mention, I only own a Wii U for the first party titles. /shrug

Or go software only,something I've been waiting for ever since gamecube. They can keep doing handhelds, as they're still very good at those and have maintained the largest market share (though they've lost ground since iPads became a thing) but I want them out of the console market. They've continued to disappoint time and again with their 3rd party stuff, and quite honestly, I'm sick of shelving out cash for their console just to play a handful of their latest 1st party stuff and then go right back to my xbox or PS.


EDIT: Actually the bulk of the heat against DS3 came from the micro-transactions. The co-op is at no point in the game forced (did you even play it?) and while the writing wasn't the best (and the game honestly could have done with an option to skip through dialogue) it was still a well made game. Awakened was the best part, as it felt a lot more like the first two entries in terms of horror but again it wasn't a bad game in the least - people were just so fixated on the (again optional) microtransactions that they lost their shit. That's not to say the game was perfect - it had a lot of flaws but I wouldn't call it a failure (much like SE getting all upset over Tomb Raider's sales, like wtf?)


Between their decision not to have a show at E3, and now Iwata apparently pulling all advertisement for the system, I'm calling it GGNORE right now.

[Firewind]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

I don't think most people think of console purchases in the context of a single game (except extremely obsessed fans). That's why I drive home the point that FIFA and Madden aren't system sellers. However, their absence can be problematic.

Clearly you haven't been to Europe

Seriously, I'm not joking, FIFA 14 being announced at not coming to the Wii U is theorised by some EU gamers as killing off the sales of the Wii U here.

FIFA and Pro Evolution Soccer/Winning Eleven are also among the reasons why all games come out on a Friday in the UK as some kind of unwritten law, due to too many people booking days off work or just flat out skipping work/school to buy games. I remember when Dawnguard and Dragonborn were released. I think there were like 3 people that turned up to the office on both those days, and two people booked the entire week off.

[Icemage]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

Clearly you haven't been to Europe

Seriously, I'm not joking, FIFA 14 being announced at not coming to the Wii U is theorised by some EU gamers as killing off the sales of the Wii U here.

FIFA and Pro Evolution Soccer/Winning Eleven are also among the reasons why all games come out on a Friday in the UK as some kind of unwritten law, due to too many people booking days off work or just flat out skipping work/school to buy games. I remember when Dawnguard and Dragonborn were released. I think there were like 3 people that turned up to the office on both those days, and two people booked the entire week off.

I've never lived in Europe but I did spend a couple weeks on vacation back circa 2005.

I didn't mean to imply that FIFA wasn't something would definitely buy a game for (see my comment about enthusiasts). It's a multiplatform game, however, so if someone is leaning toward one platform or another, it's not going to impact that decision (i.e. Xbox vs. PlayStation). What it WILL do is cause anyone who is lining up to buy it day one to rule out the Wii U if it's not on the platform.


Icemage

[Firewind]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

That is what I meant in that post. It's difficult to get joking tones across in pure text without spamming emoticons .

EDIT: Anyway the point was the same. FIFA not being in the Wii U is kind of a big deal here since it will influence the decisions of people that want a console that can play FIFA.

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

Actually, there's something we're overlooking here.

Why would Nintendo need Madden this year? EA's exclusivity deal with the NFL and NFLPA ended this year.

Remember: It's Not Just the NFL's Exclusive License with Madden; the Players' Union Has One, Too.

That's interesting. Sources elsewhere say EA has FIFA locked up til 2022. Nobody seems to be talking about the fact the NFL is up for grabs,

I'm not saying Nintendo got it, but its entirely possible they may be partnering with someone now or in the future. EA never liked competition, its why they bought these licenses out in the first place. Last generation the 2k brand scared them into that.

Even if that little theory is a wash, isn't it a bit dumb for EA to give someone else with that license no competition, especially if Wii U does turn around?

[Icemage]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

RE: BBQ

Uh, who cares what's happening to the Madden license next year? Madden '14 is coming this year, NCAA '14 is coming this year, FIFA '14 is coming this year. But they're not coming to Wii U, in a holiday season that Wii U absolutely needs to do more than just keep its head above water, and Nintendo are going to have a really hard time doing so if people start saying "Oh, <my favorite franchise> isn't on this console? Maybe I'll get an Xbox or PlayStation instead since I know those will have it..."

Unless you're in some crazy cookoo universe where Nintendo could pick up a sports license and churn out a game in six months when they can't even get their already announced games released in a timely manner, it doesn't really matter what happens after this year. By this time next year the PS4 and next Xbox will already have their foothold, binding users via PSN and XBL to continue playing games on those platforms and shutting the door on Nintendo taking any piece of the multiplatform pie (better specs, better online connectivity, etc.).

Also by holiday of next year (2014), second generation PlayStation and Xbox games will be coming down the pipeline with no cross-gen ports, leaving the Wii U out in the cold because a lot of the major engines powering the games will not be supported on Wii U (Frostbite and Unreal for sure, and probably quite a few others like Square-Enix's Luminous engine and Capcom's Panta Rhei).

I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop regarding a Wii U version of Call of Duty: Ghosts. Activision has neither confirmed nor denied that they have a version for Wii U this year, and not having a version for what will likely the biggest game of the year would be... problematic, to say the least.

EDIT:

Pertinent to this discussion:
Nintendo Wii U: Death By Apathy | GamesIndustry International

This is sort of a hateful hit-piece on Nintendo so I won't quote most of it since it'll just make people irrational, but there's one piece of data in the article that IS worth discussing in this context:

We're not officially allowed to report sales numbers from Chart Track in the UK but everyone in the publishing business can see them quite clearly. There's no need for pretence. When you can get to number one in the Wii U charts by selling less than 1000 units it's no longer a tragedy, it's an actual farce.

I know the UK isn't exactly Nintendo's strongest market, but just... wow. Less than a thousand units for even the top-selling games in the UK for Wii U? Unbelievable.


Icemage

[Firewind]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

I think I noted that I have a friend who is a manager of a GAME in the Persona 4 Arena thread. After asking him a few times about it, I think the store he manages is lucky to be in the double figures for Wii U game sales.

[cidbahamut]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

Unless you're in some crazy cookoo universe

He is.

[Malacite]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

Here's yet another reason I won't be owning a Wii U:



Nintendo Flexing Copyright Clout on YouTube Let's Play Channels - gamefront.com | gamefront.com


Really Nintendo? Kiss my grits.

[Icemage]

Re: It's Not Wii U, It's Me

Here's yet another reason I won't be owning a Wii U:

Nintendo Flexing Copyright Clout on YouTube Let's Play Channels - gamefront.com | gamefront.com

Really Nintendo? Kiss my grits.

It's greedy, but doesn't really impact you personally unless you were planning to stream Nintendo games or watch said streams.

I think it's seriously stupid for Nintendo to pull these shenanigans at this juncture though. It's not like they don't have enough negative publicity as it is, and burning people who are out there evangelizing your platforms and IP at no cost to you is ridiculous.

By the by, seems like Wii U sold something like 38,000 units in North America in April. Not a huge surprise since the only title released in the entire month of April was Injustice: Gods Among Us (multiplatform), but seriously... 38K? Never in my darkest nightmares would I have believed there were so few Nintendo fans left. :/ The Wii U doesn't really have much of anything on its release slate that will move hardware until maaaaybe Pikmin 3 (late July) or Disney Infinity (multiplatform mid-August), so this is an especially bad trajectory.


Icemage