PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

[Aeni]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

2015 is way too late. I put the likelihood of both Sony and Microsoft launching in 2015 at exactly 0%. Yes, 0%.

It is a speculation so haha it's all good

Sony's problem with the PS3/Cell isn't so much the Cell design itself (which, while a bit odd, is actually pretty nifty when used correctly). Their problems had more to do with production cost for a new chip design, shipping the PS3 without enough memory to support the rest of the hardware, and shaving off too much cost off of the graphics chip (GPU).

Don't forget their initial problems with producing enough Blu-Ray devices to go into the PS3. I seem to vaguely remember that being an issue at the very beginning.

Microsoft's primary hurdle is DVD and the lack of standard mass storage (hard drive). DVD just isn't cutting it any more, and more and more developers are chafing at the space limitations and juggling you have to do to get around the limitations of DVD for games on the Xbox 360.

I feel that this was the least of their problems considering the work around solution used for the PSX and PS2, namely mutliple discs. I think Xenosaga featured multiple discs for the PS2 at the time, although that was packed with cinematics and the compression technology wasn't as good as it is now.

Both Sony and Microsoft shouldn't have to do a metric ton of investment or R&D to make either of these two scenarios happen, so my guesstimate is late 2013 for both machines, give or take 6 months. No later than holiday 2014 at the absolute limit.


Icemage

I absolutely agree with you that it's not technical limitations per se, but it is them sitting and waiting for public reception on Nintendo's risk with a touch pad controller. Remember, the Wii introduced motion sensors which were ridiculed by many at the time until both Sony and Microsoft saw Nintendo banking billions off it. They never waited until a PS4/720 release to feature that technology.

Nintendo's DS came out before the iPhone was even hinted at being worked on by Apple and everyone seemed to have hesitation that the gaming device would even take off. Haters will always hate but time will tell whether or not Nintendo can notch this as a success or failure. In the meantime, I don't think Microsoft and Sony knows what to do. They're caught in between (Microsoft because XBox 360 is really taking off NOW and Sony because the strong yen is killing the whole company) and aren't sure how to proceed.

Remember, Sony finally took over all of Ericsson, have expressed in interest in following Amzon's lead of forking their own OS and have said that they want to do a more insular vertical integration like Apple did. Microsoft might be doing the same especially with Windows 8. None of them have installed these new technology or infrastructure just yet and it will be at least late 2012 before they can proceed with confidence in the rest of their console plans. Then you add in another 18-24 mos for design, implementation and manufacturing plus getting developers on board for opening release games.

It's a lot of work...

[Icemage]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

Advanced planning for vertical integration is only vastly important in dedicated hardware. For devices like current consoles, a firmware update will suffice to link it into whatever new infrastructure is in place, provided there are enough hardware resources to go around (i.e. enough memory and a spare OS process).

Sony looks to me like they're trying to do an end run around the problem by having devices be flexible enough to hook into their network. You can see an example with the cross-compatibility capabilities of the PS3 and PSVita, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the next PlayStation console has an even tighter online integration.

Microsoft is going at the problem in their own way, by trying to rope in Windows 8 into XBL. Since they have no reasonable mobile marketshare (Windows Phone 7? Don't make me laugh.), this is a reasonable approach for them.

These sorts of things don't need to be designed directly into the hardware, so long as there are system resources allocated to accommodate those features to be implemented via firmware update.

That's why I say your estimate is off - that extra 18-24 months is already a sunk development time, and both Microsoft and Sony are undoubtedly already hip-deep in design and implementation now. There's no way either company is going to say "Oh, let's see how the market reacts to the Wii U before we start serious design work.". Sure, if the Wii U tanks and sells 1 million units in its first year on the market, you might see a somewhat later introduction from MS and Sony, but any sort of suggestion that either one is holding off on their plans until they see how Nintendo fares is simply crazy talk.


Icemage

[Freelancer]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

They better be backward compatible.

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

Yeah I don't think there are going to be tolerable excuses for no backward compatibility next time around, but Sony beimg Sony of late it would not surprise me.

They ditched PS2 compatibility for PS3 because of "cost."
They ensured that Vita would not be compatible with UMDs.
Then they had the audacity to set up a program that charges $7 to $13 bucks to convert your UMDs to a digital version. That's per game, BTW. Yep, pay again for a game you already bought.
Of course, you'll have to have storage for that and Vita storage is expensive.
And to top it all off, as of yesterday, shared software between Sony hardware has now been cut back to two from the former five. So that means no sharing with friends from here on out.

Sony has basically ensured that I will be going with Microsoft next gen, Steam and Nintendo were a given for me. Not even Team Ico will be enough to keep me coming back next time. They had better fucking shape up because all I see them doing is giving the gamer less and less value.

It was mentioned recently that with 3DS and Wii U, Nintendo will be deciding what games are allowed to put DLC on their network on the basis of how complete the game feels. While some can argue that is a subjective concept, the fact that Saints Row 3, Arkham City, UMVC3 all arrived incomplete - to say nothing of EA's games of late - that's some real balls. It might not win the love of certain third parties, but its got my respect because Nintendo is one of the few that still releases games complete with no plans announced for DLC before the game is even out. Capcom is already showing off "DLC" costumes for SFXT. Game's not even out for another three months and they have DLC. Developers aren't even being subtle about the content they blatantly cut.

[Icemage]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

It was mentioned recently that with 3DS and Wii U, Nintendo will be deciding what games are allowed to put DLC on their network on the basis of how complete the game feels. While some can argue that is a subjective concept, the fact that Saints Row 3, Arkham City, UMVC3 all arrived incomplete - to say nothing of EA's games of late - that's some real balls. It might not win the love of certain third parties, but its got my respect because Nintendo is one of the few that still releases games complete with no plans announced for DLC before the game is even out. Capcom is already showing off "DLC" costumes for SFXT. Game's not even out for another three months and they have DLC. Developers aren't even being subtle about the content they blatantly cut.

This sounds great on paper, until one realizes that Nintendo isn't in a good position to piss off 3rd parties even more. They need them if they're going to win back any notable fraction of the non-casual base that has more or less abandoned the Wii at this point.

What this policy is going to end up causing is something like:

Street Fighter X Tekken for PS360 with all DLC and proper online play.
Street Fighter X Tekken for Wii U with no DLC and half-assed online play because Capcom won't bother to support the online platform when they can't sell any DLC for it.

What happens then? Hardly anyone buys SF x T for Wii U. And we're back to the same problem the Wii has, where multiplatform owners give Nintendo the finger because the version they get ends up being inferior.

This is not, and should not be a desirable outcome for Nintendo. They need something better than this to happen or the Wii U is dead in the water. I'm surprised Nintendo is even sending smoke signals along these lines. That's not going to make 3rd parties any happier, and frankly the vast majority of Nintendo console owners don't really care about DLC one way or another.


Icemage

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

Yes Icemage, I think we all know by now you're OK with an industry where third parties treat us like shit.

I don't want the industry you deserve, quite frankly.

[Icemage]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

Yes Icemage, I think we all know by now you're OK with an industry where third parties treat us like shit.

I don't want the industry you deserve, quite frankly.

What I "want" has nothing to do with it. Unlike you, I don't bury my head in the sand hoping that the rest of the world doesn't realize I live in a fantasy world.

Why do you always assume that I like games that ship incomplete? I don't. Unlike you, I consider a game "complete" when it's fully playable out of the box. If there's enough content there to justify my purchase, then I'm fine with that. If there's more content available later, then I make the decision on whether it's worth it then. If a piece of DLC doesn't look worthwhile to me (CoD Map Packs, stupid costumes in Capcom/NIS games, etc.), then I don't buy it. If it does, then I do if it fits in my budget.


Icemage

[Aeni]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

These sorts of things don't need to be designed directly into the hardware, so long as there are system resources allocated to accommodate those features to be implemented via firmware update.

I had several paragraphs of explanation and my browser crashed. Sigh ... don't feel like hashing it out all over again.

Anyway, the short is that you're missing my point on two things: ecosystem and peripheral. I brought up the Wii U touch pad because the console will launch with it. Microsoft and Sony got caught with their pants down and are scrambling to do the same. No, it's not as simple as a firmware update. It's going to involve scrapping whatever they were working on and starting from 1.

BTW, everyone seems to have forgotten that Sony's development with Ericsson was more than just about a new smartphone. They wanted to develop an OS that would be used across their entire ecosystem, including the PlayStation. The Vita was just a rushed response to the 3DS. I'm hedging my bet that there will be something else just down the road; probably this will be their version of the Wii U touchpad.

[Icemage]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

I had several paragraphs of explanation and my browser crashed. Sigh ... don't feel like hashing it out all over again.

Anyway, the short is that you're missing my point on two things: ecosystem and peripheral. I brought up the Wii U touch pad because the console will launch with it. Microsoft and Sony got caught with their pants down and are scrambling to do the same. No, it's not as simple as a firmware update. It's going to involve scrapping whatever they were working on and starting from 1.

BTW, everyone seems to have forgotten that Sony's development with Ericsson was more than just about a new smartphone. They wanted to develop an OS that would be used across their entire ecosystem, including the PlayStation. The Vita was just a rushed response to the 3DS. I'm hedging my bet that there will be something else just down the road; probably this will be their version of the Wii U touchpad.

... you can't seriously believe any of that, can you?

You think either Microsoft or Sony care about the Wii U's tethered-to-15-feet-from-the-console touchpad? If Microsoft had cared, they wouldn't have scrapped development on Surface. Sony's PSVita is already a more portable answer. The whole value of having a tablet is that you can take it with you and do things with it; the Wii U's controller pad doesn't cover that base.

I'm pretty sure neither Sony nor Microsoft are going to market a fragile $100 controller peripheral. Kinect "sort of" gets away with it because it isn't touched by the user.

I've no idea what Sony's doing with Ericsson, but whatever it is will probably flop like a whale because Sony doesn't understand the mobile phone space at all. The only thing they could do with it at this point is go hook up with Google and make a PSN-friendly variant of Android, but doing that would take more intelligence than I give Sony credit for.


Icemage

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

What I "want" has nothing to do with it. Unlike you, I don't bury my head in the sand hoping that the rest of the world doesn't realize I live in a fantasy world.

Why do you always assume that I like games that ship incomplete? I don't. Unlike you, I consider a game "complete" when it's fully playable out of the box. If there's enough content there to justify my purchase, then I'm fine with that. If there's more content available later, then I make the decision on whether it's worth it then. If a piece of DLC doesn't look worthwhile to me (CoD Map Packs, stupid costumes in Capcom/NIS games, etc.), then I don't buy it. If it does, then I do if it fits in my budget.


Icemage

I assume such because you - much like Malacite - represent gamers that are part of the problem. You encourage developers to keep giving you less and less by giving the ones taking content away your money while believing their bullshit.

Sorry, you can't just go and rail on Capcom, Activision and NIS and turn a blind eye to what Bioware and Naughty Dog pull - "complete" or not. Its hypocritical at best and ignorant at its worst.

Again, this isn't what gaming was in prior generations and I think if you ask most people, they'd tell you the piecemealing of content is not change for the better.

Games like Skyrim and Skyward Sword are more and more a rarity than ever. Upwards of five years of hard work and dedication poured into these games that, when finished, don't feel like they needed anything else.

THAT is complete in my mind. And if that's fantasy for you, well, your "reality" sucks to be quite honest.

[Malacite]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

Care to elaborate on those 1st 2 points?

What exactly is wrong with Naughty Dog or Bioware?

[Kailea]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

what ever happened to "games make the system"

I dont really care about all the hardware stuff, or what the new controller of the decade is......

as long as Nintendo gives me my next Mario/Zelda/Metroid/pokemon/smash bros, and continues to improve on their own previous console, then I don't care how it stacks up to the others, I will own them as well so why would it matter.

The only thing that I hope Nintendo really works on/ fixes, is their online, other then that I am happy with the way the Wii U is turning out.

[Icemage]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

I assume such because you - much like Malacite - represent gamers that are part of the problem. You encourage developers to keep giving you less and less by giving the ones taking content away your money while believing their bullshit.

Sorry, you can't just go and rail on Capcom, Activision and NIS and turn a blind eye to what Bioware and Naughty Dog pull - "complete" or not. Its hypocritical at best and ignorant at its worst.

Again, this isn't what gaming was in prior generations and I think if you ask most people, they'd tell you the piecemealing of content is not change for the better.

Games like Skyrim and Skyward Sword are more and more a rarity than ever. Upwards of five years of hard work and dedication poured into these games that, when finished, don't feel like they needed anything else.

THAT is complete in my mind. And if that's fantasy for you, well, your "reality" sucks to be quite honest.

You must remember a different "gaming in prior generations" than I do, because what we have today is the same old, same old. The methods change, but the goals remain the same. "Some" developers focus on making a complete package and selling it. Others skate by with as little as they can get away with and try to sell you something else later. And sometimes things just don't fit into a single game.

Do you consider the last two Harry Potter films to be "complete"? Those were sourced fromn one book, but they decided to make two films. By your definition, that's a reprehensible cash-in because how DARE they tell only half of a story in a film.

Your problem is you think "planning for DLC" automatically means "let's rip critical things out of the game so we can sell it later" and sell it to people.

News flash: Not every (nor most) DLC is "critical" to the overall game it modifies. The only exceptions I can think of offhand are the Prince of Persia 2008 Epilogue DLC, the virtually-required-to-complete-a-season extra golf courses in Tiger Woods '11, and maaaybe the "missing" missions in Assassin's Creed II. Most DLC falls into the category of "supplemental" additions. Smaller expansions to a story side plotline, additional options or items to increase the quality of gameplay, and other things which don't take away from the core experience if they happen to be absent.

As for the whole reality thing, maybe in some strange universe where you think you live in, Nintendo exists in a vacuum and having them take a stand against DLC will somehow have a beneficial effect for someone, but in the real world where the rest of us live, those 3rd party publishers who are going to create supplemental DLC are still going to create it, they just won't release it on Nintendo's platform. It's not going to stop it from being made, and it's not going to do anything except drive people (and more importantly, money) away from Nintendo.

But hey, you can keep thinking it's some sort of virtuous philosophical crusade by Nintendo. Just don't try to convince the rest of us that it's anything but a pipedream.

---------- Post added at 01:26 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:22 AM ----------

what ever happened to "games make the system"

I dont really care about all the hardware stuff, or what the new controller of the decade is......

as long as Nintendo gives me my next Mario/Zelda/Metroid/pokemon/smash bros, and continues to improve on their own previous console, then I don't care how it stacks up to the others, I will own them as well so why would it matter.

The only thing that I hope Nintendo really works on/ fixes, is their online, other then that I am happy with the way the Wii U is turning out.

Games only make a system if they're exclusive, and they can BREAK a system if they're exclusive to other consoles. Look at the Wii for a perfect example. It rose on the strength and quality of Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and the rest of the 1st party Nintendo franchises, plus a tiny helping hand from more casual-centric games like Just Dance.

On the flip side, the whole reason the Wii is floundering so badly now is because it's NOT getting all the things core gamers care about now (see: every PS360 game released this winter, which is to say all but a handful of games).


Icemage

[Aeni]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

... you can't seriously believe any of that, can you?

You think either Microsoft or Sony care about the Wii U's tethered-to-15-feet-from-the-console touchpad? If Microsoft had cared, they wouldn't have scrapped development on Surface. Sony's PSVita is already a more portable answer. The whole value of having a tablet is that you can take it with you and do things with it; the Wii U's controller pad doesn't cover that base.

I'm pretty sure neither Sony nor Microsoft are going to market a fragile $100 controller peripheral. Kinect "sort of" gets away with it because it isn't touched by the user.

I've no idea what Sony's doing with Ericsson, but whatever it is will probably flop like a whale because Sony doesn't understand the mobile phone space at all. The only thing they could do with it at this point is go hook up with Google and make a PSN-friendly variant of Android, but doing that would take more intelligence than I give Sony credit for.


Icemage

Microsoft didn't scrap Surface. Not sure where you heard that from.

Microsoft's table-sized tablet Surfaces for pre-order

Also, you don't think that Sony or Microsoft will see the potential to address a "tethered" problem with Bluetooth technology? Fragile? That's Nintendo's take on what it should be like. Not sure why Nintendo thought that was the only approach. Tablets are ubiquitous as microwave ovens now.

LeapFrog LeapPad: A Durable Child-Friendly Learning Tablet for Kids from LeapFrog

You could find a happy place inbetween those two extremes.

Amazon.com showed everyone you don't have to toe the Google line and showed that forking the Android and making it your very own without stuffing Market and everything else into your device is a viable system. Again, we don't know what Sony and Microsoft is developing, but it's not going to be how Nintendo is doing it and I'm sure they're analyzing everything that Nintendo is doing and trying to "stem" the advantage they have. But "rushing" a new console out the door in less than 2 years from now isn't the answer.

I find Nintendo's recent steps to mirror Sega's Dreamcast. The difference is that Sega had to bet the farm while Nintendo is arguably in a much better position.

[Icemage]

Re: PS4 to Launch in 2013, Xbox 720 to launch in 2014

Microsoft didn't scrap Surface. Not sure where you heard that from.

Microsoft's table-sized tablet Surfaces for pre-order

Microsoft can do all the grandstanding they like about Surface, but the original intent was much more of a consumer item than what masquerades as Surface today. At a price tag in the multi-thousands, it's no longer an iPad-like device.

Also, you don't think that Sony or Microsoft will see the potential to address a "tethered" problem with Bluetooth technology? Fragile? That's Nintendo's take on what it should be like. Not sure why Nintendo thought that was the only approach. Tablets are ubiquitous as microwave ovens now.

I honestly don't know what Nintendo was thinking with the Wii U controller. It's not an iPad, it's not a standard controller, and it has many of the worst features of both.

LeapFrog LeapPad: A Durable Child-Friendly Learning Tablet for Kids from LeapFrog

You could find a happy place inbetween those two extremes.

Amazon.com showed everyone you don't have to toe the Google line and showed that forking the Android and making it your very own without stuffing Market and everything else into your device is a viable system. Again, we don't know what Sony and Microsoft is developing, but it's not going to be how Nintendo is doing it and I'm sure they're analyzing everything that Nintendo is doing and trying to "stem" the advantage they have. But "rushing" a new console out the door in less than 2 years from now isn't the answer.

You still don't get it. Sony and Microsoft are already working on their next generation designs, and they already have their own plans. Are they keeping an eye on what Nintendo are doing? Of course. But your assumption that they're going to drop everything and play follow the leader if Nintendo somehow manages to catch some lightning in a bottle with the Wii U is ridiculous.

Microsoft already has a competing technology in Kinect, and they're much better off developing a stronger iteration with better framerate and accuracy than going with Nintendo's tablet idea. They don't need a tablet - you can hold a controller in your hand and gesture with the other hand, or talk, or turn your hand, to use Kinect already.

Sony has less invested in that arena (PS Move), but they're much bigger believers in comfortable gaming being the keystone to success with the hardcore. I might expect Sony to ship the PS4 with a standard PS Eye or some variant thereof (and like MS Kinect, probably with better resolution and/or framerate), but dropping everything just to create a touchpad controller? That's rank insanity. Sony does a lot of stupid things, but that's higher levels of stupid than is plausible.

I find Nintendo's recent steps to mirror Sega's Dreamcast. The difference is that Sega had to bet the farm while Nintendo is arguably in a much better position.

Nintendo's not betting the farm mainly because they made a stupendous amount of money cashing in on the casual market with the Wii. What's not clear is how they're going to get back in the good graces of the people they've turned their backs on in the past five years (and by this I mean both high-volume game buyers as well as 3rd party developer/publishers).


Icemage