Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

[PhiberOpticks]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

Exactly how much more fun would BD or HD DVD add to a video game? Is that more than a simple innovation in user interface which allow the players to feel more a part the game in front of them?

It's the next generation of disc formats. It allows for deeper development. Therefore, there is more credence to calling the PS3 or the 360 a next-generation console.

In my eyes, Wii is the only real "Next-Gen" game console out there. Both PS3 and xBox360 are just about more of the same: more graphic power, more CPU power, more networking, more storage. They are really just "Last-Gen, version 2.5," as far as I can tell.

What kind of backwards-ass logic is that? You're saying the Wii is the next generation because it has more outdated technology?

Main Entry: next-generation
Part of Speech: adj
Definition: pertaining to the next generation in a family; also, pertaining to the next stage of development or version of a product, service, or technology
Example: Programmers are now developing next-generation software.

Hmm, nope, doesn't say anything about recycling old hardware. And ironically enough, the same definition you apply to why the PS3 and the 360 are last-gen are the qualifications for making the systems next-gen. What a dilemma. I'll side with the people who do semantics for a living.

I have to go back and take issue with the original premise. Microsoft cannot and will not include an HD DVD drive standard on the Xbox 360 for the forseeable future.

Why? It's not cost. It's speed.

The Xbox 360 right now features a 12x DVD drive, with a maximum bandwidth of 16MB/s (if you ever wondered why the Xbox 360 drives tend to be noisy - this is why).

An HD DVD drive spins at only 1x, with a maximum bandwidth of only 4.5MB/s.

Microsoft would need to convince Toshiba to manufacture 2x HD DVD drives (something which Toshiba has yet to be able to do in a stable fashion, apparently - even their commercial burner device is only 1x) to even get within shouting distance of decent load times.

Without a 2x drive, games will load at nearly one fourth of their current speed. Not a good thing to have happen when you have games that already suffer tangibly from long load times like Oblivion.

Incidentally, the PS3's Blu-ray drive is 2x and can do up to 9Mbps (which is slower than the 360's DVD9 drive), and that's still something of a bottleneck for it.

Wow. Thanks for the lesson.

[ItazuraNhomango]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

It's the next generation of disc formats. It allows for deeper development. Therefore, there is more credence to calling the PS3 or the 360 a next-generation console.

"Deeper development" is a meaningless phrase.

What kind of backwards-ass logic is that? You're saying the Wii is the next generation because it has more outdated technology?

The Wii controller enabled new forms of game play, and Nintendo did a great job using its capability to make games fun. In fact, it's so much fun, it's making gamers out of non-gamers. That's a true step forward.

When the first RISC computer CPU first came out, it was actually a much simpler, less complicated CPU than the existing competitors. That very simplicity was the key; focus on doing its core job well--do key computations fast--instead of shoving fancier and fancier features into the CPU instruction set. That idea revolutionized computer hardware design.

Nintendo's Wii has that kind of focus: make gaming fun. It has the potential to change the way the world and videogame makers look at games.

[WishMaster3K]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

"Deeper development" is a meaningless phrase.
The Wii controller enabled new forms of game play, and Nintendo did a great job using its capability to make games fun. In fact, it's so much fun, it's making gamers out of non-gamers. That's a true step forward.

No, it's niche.

It's novelty.

The Wii is an excuse to make subpar games, and people don't blame the graphics because they're comparing it to the PS3 and XB360. Then when a (relatively) gorgeous game comes out (based on the current stock of Wii titles to compare it to), it's a "great," "wonderful," "artistic" game.

The only reason that this thread will possibly reach high post counts is because a chance to state your opinion are magnets for flamebait. (Negative news sells. Joystiq has been raising their visitor traffic for years doing that.)

Actually, the only reason people are cutting them slack is because they're Nintendo. Had the PS3 really just been the PS2.5 in terms of hardware power, the Internets would have jumped on it and started using "fail" as a noun again. But let the Social gods create Mario Crapfest: Bathroom Adventures 3, and it's heralded as the best platformer since Pitfall.

After Metroid comes out, then the long wait for SSBB and Mario.

Then maybe we might be lucky and see another Zelda this generation, and end up with Nintendo tying their record of Zelda releases per console that was set in the 32/64 bit era, hey! Almost a decade ago!

I'm not impressed by the Wii. There are only so many times you can go bowling a weekend.

And your RISC argument is valid. But don't take that too far and start talking about how the internet needs to abandon BGP and go to Appletalk. IGRP is the wave of the future..

[PhiberOpticks]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

"Deeper development" is a meaningless phrase.

I could say the same about your statements on next-gen consoles. Anyways, deeper development means several things. More intelligent AI, more detailed textures, more content, etc.

The Wii controller enabled new forms of game play, and Nintendo did a great job using its capability to make games fun. In fact, it's so much fun, it's making gamers out of non-gamers. That's a true step forward.

The Wii was not the first to employ that style of gameplay. Ever play Time Crisis? Same concept. And what kind of counter point is "Wii games are fun"? Rainbow SIx Vegas is fun. Gears of War is fun. Resistance is fun. F.E.A.R. is fun. Overlord is fun. The only thing the Wii did was bring more casual gamers into the fold. But it came at the cost of keeping hardcore gamers happy. It's a step forward for the market. Not for the art of video game development.

BTW, the only other device with that kind of appeal seems to be GameBoy DS. (Though, not so much in U.S.) Go Nintendo. lol.

The DS is not a gameboy.

[WishMaster3K]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

Sidenote: Not trying to attack Ifritno, you're a good person and you generally make valid points that I agree with. I Honestly don't mean to flame you. But people need to get off the High Horse Nintendo Bandwagon, just because it's a SAFE place. People are eatting the stuff video game companies sell us, and Nintendo has the largest cafeteria because it's "safe." People like to stick with what they think is "safe," which is why you can never go wrong with attacking Sony and supporting Nintendo.
Consumers generally have a 1-2 console choice, so of course we're going to bet safely for what best supports our own preferences and fits. But twisting statements, facts and reality for your own good is bad, and Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are all guilty. Nintendo relys on brand strength and the rabid fan following of their niche games, then they let the fans do all the bad mouthing.
That way, we don't see Nintendo as being "That company that's all about the Bottomline." No, they're nothing like M$ Or S(hit)ony. lawl lawl lawl.
"For the love of Miyamoto! Don't you dare attack Nintendo!"
"But hey, they're just a novel-"
"Zelda."
"That's nice and all but when was the last tim-"
"Zelda. And Mario."
"Sure, once a generation is nice, but I'd like some more 3rd party games if you want to argue that Nintendo is really innovat-"
"And Smash Brothers."
"....."
"Made of Win."
Microsoft does one of three things at a given moment:
1) Whatever is going to make them the best profit
2) Attack Sony
3) Support Nintendo.
Having Nintendo around helps Microsoft. "HAI GUYZ!!! Wii60 FTW!"
I don't see MS shipping the 360 with a HD-DVD, ever.
But then again, they definitely released a version of the console with HDMI, especially after statements that they were just fine with their current output, and that component was sufficient enough to do what they wanted to do.
Anything is possible, but MS definitely hasn't invested an insane amount into digital distribution just to end up going back on their statements.

Edit:
Additionally, I'm impressed with Sony this generation, mostly because of how they matured as a company. They've been under fire for a LONG time, especially before the PS3 even came out. Now, even amongst losing profits and being hit from all sides, they're doing nicely for themselves.
Focusing on brand strength and listening to consumers.
I forsee the next Playstation incorporating these concepts nicely, and the fact that the Sony Machine hasn't cracked despite the NUMEROUS slip ups is encouraging for their longevity in the growing video game market.
I don't know how much longer it'll be before MS starts doing the same thing, because right now they're retorting to bullying tactics. Of course, it's all business, and nothing personal. They're just trying to get paid. So I don't feel bad for anyone, because Peter Moore and Phil Harrison both don't need to worry about their next meals, but the numerous people that get laid off due to bad business decisions.

[Yellow Mage]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

You know what I am sick and tired of? Anti-fanboyism.

Seriously, when was the last time a Nintendo fanboy ever reared his head on the Internet ever since hating Nintendo became "cool?"

[WishMaster3K]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

Anti-Fanboys (raises hand) are just as bad as fanboys sometimes.

But don't resort to "OMG, (insert system here) PWNS JOO!!!!" and the rambling of a bunch of pointless statistics.

"T3H PS3 IS T3H BES CUZ IT CAN DO MOAR POLYS DAN T3H SHITBOX180 LAWLAWL"

Given the lesser of two evils, I'd take the one that understands grammar and punctuation.

[tdh]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

In my eyes, Wii is the only real "Next-Gen" game console out there. Both PS3 and xBox360 are just about more of the same: more graphic power, more CPU power, more networking, more storage. They are really just "Last-Gen, version 2.5," as far as I can tell.

Wii, instead, set out to convince non-gamers that gamers have more fun--and ask them to join us. By all appearances, it is succeeding.

Honestly, I don't think this is a bad assessment. Perhaps Gen 2.5 sounds bad, but when you draw the comparisons it's not far off. Xbox Controller Vs. X360 Controller. Wireless, color, basically the same thing. Dual Shock 2 Vs. SIXAXIS. Same size, same color, remove rumble, add wireless, but same thing. Gamecube Controller/Wavebird Vs. Wiimote. Big difference.

Game play? X360 and PS3 have some substantial processing power, but game play isn't really changing. We have similar games with better graphics, and no or much less FMV/CGI. SIXAXIS seems more of a gimmick to me than the Wiimote once did. (So far the only times I've used it in a game was for the sake of having it, or to turn that option off. Baseball game using SIXAXIS to bat is retarded.) Perhaps in the future the extra processing power and the extra media space will allow for some real innovation, but right now we're not seeing that. But the Wii is taking their once thought upon gimmicky Wiimote and is changing how people play games. That's NextGen. Is it as big a leap as 2D to 3D? I don't think so, but if you change how people are interacting with your product, that's NextGen.

Now I do agree with W3k's point of how Nintendo gets away with so much more than anybody else. People are pointing heavy loaded fingers at Sony for various issues and are completely overlooking the fact that the Wii hasn't made a single attempt to address that same problem. It's almost as if the real gaming community has decided the Wii doesn't actually exist and it's just X360 & PS3 jockeying for consumer dollars. Recently read a few articles in a magazine basically putting PS3 on blast the whole edition. But it also pointed out that some of the things people thought about Sony and the PS3 were just flat out incorrect. They also pointed out that we're all giving Sony the 3rd degree about their online play etc; when the Wii has none. But nobody seems to be pointing that finger at Nintendo.

I think the Wii is good for the industry though. I hate to draw this parallel, but think of the Wii as a gateway drug. They get hooked on the Wii, and then branch out into something more hardcore causing them to become multi-system owners, and playing a wider range of games. I have a friend who's mother actually bought a Wii because another mother in her church group fell in love with the one she bought for her grandson. This woman, to the best of my friend and my knowledge, has never once picked up a video game and now is a proud Wii owner and asked to come to our bi-monthly gaming night. Now she's in no danger of going out and buying a X360 or a PS3, but if a 60 year old woman bought a Wii, a 30~40 year old non-gamer may; and they're the ones who might jump to that level.

[Yellow Mage]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

But people need to get off the High Horse Nintendo Bandwagon, just because it's a SAFE place. People are eatting the stuff video game companies sell us, and Nintendo has the largest cafeteria because it's "safe." People like to stick with what they think is "safe," which is why you can never go wrong with attacking Sony and supporting Nintendo.

You know, now that I think about it, a year ago, you wouldn't exactly have been calling the Wii "safe." Nobody would have.

[ItazuraNhomango]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

lol. I don't know why I keep getting labeled as "fanboy", when I refuse to by any of the three "next-gen" systems because my PS2 is keeping me happy enough. (May have to cave on the Wii, though; a certain person in my life loves it--or at least Wii Tennis. She usually hates video games, too. /sigh)

Anyway, I've stated my position, and that's left is watching the sales numbers. The new platform that is able to create the largest install base has the best chance of changing the gaming world. At the same time, the company which has the largest install base amongst the existing platforms has great incentives to keep things the same. It'd be interesting to see how the two trends play out.

[tdh]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

"T3H PS3 IS T3H BES CUZ IT CAN DO MOAR POLYS DAN T3H SHITBOX180 LAWLAWL"

That cracked me the hell up! SHITBOX180 FTL!!

I could say the same about your statements on next-gen consoles. Anyways, deeper development means several things. More intelligent AI, more detailed textures, more content, etc.

The only thing we know for sure about "deeper development" is that it means higher production costs. As we all should know by now, just because a company dumped a load of money into a product doesn't mean it's going to be great. So you can't assume that this "deeper development" is going to be translated directly into greater AI, larger levels, etc;

The Wii was not the first to employ that style of gameplay. Ever play Time Crisis? Same concept. And what kind of counter point is "Wii games are fun"? Rainbow SIx Vegas is fun. Gears of War is fun. Resistance is fun. F.E.A.R. is fun. Overlord is fun. The only thing the Wii did was bring more casual gamers into the fold. But it came at the cost of keeping hardcore gamers happy. It's a step forward for the market. Not for the art of video game development.

This is a contradiction in ideas. Bringing more casual gamers to the community, is good for the community. How do you think most people become gamers? They get turned onto it in passing, and then take it to the logical next step - people don't usually start at the top of the mountain. If the market is moving forward, then so does game development. These developing houses are in the game to make money. Yeah, it's an art, but in the end if the art doesn't sell why are they wasting time? That casual gamer dollar helps fund more "hardcore" titles. Just because you don't like the art of a game, doesn't mean it's not art or is killing the hardcore gamer.

Nevermind the fact that "hardcore gamer" is a very subjective notion. How many hardcore gamers out there ONLY play sports games? Madden? NBA Live? MLB games? Or how about the people who only view hardcore gamers as the guys with $5,000 gaming PCs who would never waste money on a console?

The DS is not a gameboy.

The Nintendo DS is a GameBoy. It's the first incarnation that doesn't blatantly have the GameBoy named stamped all over it, but it's still a GameBoy. Plays all the games, and is still developed by the GameBoy division at Nintendo. So don't get it twisted, the DS is still a GameBoy.

[Icemage]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

I think it's way too early to be calling the console wars.

Right now the Wii and 360 have about 10 million units in the wild (well, you could say something about a lot of those 360's being out of commission at any given moment *g*). The PS3's got around 4.6 million units in the wild.

None of the 3 is anywhere near what I would consider "critical mass" for a console platform. Right now, if you're a software developer, none of the 3 platforms is a safe bet unless you're working on a guaranteed triple-A title. It's why we've seen a lot of exclusive titles go multiplatform (lots of PS3 exclusives to 360, and a ton of 360 exclusives to PC). This isn't an accident or an isolated phenomenon. It's because there just isn't enough install base to support anything but the best and most popular games.

There are still 80 million+ gamers out there who haven't voted with their dollars yet. The Wii's doing well, but it has some challenges ahead, not least of which is that the Wii looks pretty awful on HDTVs compared to PS3 and Xbox 360, and the HDTV market share is increasing on a daily basis.

Not that graphics are the end-all and be-all, but I'm really sorry, I don't see the Wii's control scheme as "revolutionary". It's cool, but it has drawbacks like any other control scheme, and in the mean time it makes the Wii both difficult to port games to in a sensible fashion as well as impossible to port games from.

Looking at the current and upcoming title libraries, there's great titles coming for all 3 systems, but the kicker is that virtually every major anticipated title for the Wii is direct from Nintendo, while the PS3 and Xbox 360 both have very strong third party support.

Let's get real: the reason the Wii is doing well is because it's the lowest priced of the new consoles not just in hardware but in cost of ownership to the typical casual gamer. The typical casual gamer isn't the type to buy a new game every month; in fact, their average play time is so little that it's unlikely that they will buy more than a few titles over the entire lifespan of the console unless they cross the chasm and become hardcore gamers.

It'll be interesting to see what the Wii games sales figures look like in a year once the new toy sparkle wears off for the people who aren't heavily into gaming.


Icemage

[ItazuraNhomango]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

Heh. Trust Icemage to bring logic and balance to a debate.

Good point about HD; if FCC doesn't back off the HD switch-over mandate, Wii will suffer badly without a new model with HD support. Nintendo must know that, though, and that probably means Wii 2 should be coming soon.

And, yes, I very much look forward to the sales numbers as well. ^_^

[tdh]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

The HD issue didn't occur to me until reading Icemage's post. HD is starting to become more and more important in North America, but how is the rest of the world sizing up HD capabilities. Is there a higher saturation of HD TVs and signals in Asia or Europe? PS3 and X360 obviously already have HD game plans, but no word at all on Nintendo's HD plans (If there are any.) Was curious if, for example, Japan has a pretty high HD saturation and Nintendo's already fast to work on a solution to that "problem."

[Icemage]

Re: Future Estimates, Xbox360 shipping with HD-DVD

The HD issue didn't occur to me until reading Icemage's post. HD is starting to become more and more important in North America, but how is the rest of the world sizing up HD capabilities. Is there a higher saturation of HD TVs and signals in Asia or Europe? PS3 and X360 obviously already have HD game plans, but no word at all on Nintendo's HD plans (If there are any.) Was curious if, for example, Japan has a pretty high HD saturation and Nintendo's already fast to work on a solution to that "problem."

Japan reportedly has the highest rate of HDTV penetration in the world, at an astounding 64% as of September 2006:

http://www.displaysearch.com/press/?id=933

I believe the last figures I saw for North America estimates it at around 30% as of 2006 (and this was before the Christmas buying season where HDTVs were the hottest selling items on the market).

It's numbers like these that make me believe the Wii is going to have some big trouble in the near future as more and more HDTV owners compare similar titles across the platforms and choose the HD version (which multiple console owners like myself are already doing).

EDIT: I found a better update on North America. 34% as of early 2007.
http://www.tvtechnology.com/hd_notebook/one.php?id=1103


Icemage