Kim Jong-Il is dead.

[Feba]

BBC News - N Korean leader Kim Jong-il dies

[Raydeus]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

o_O

[Firewind]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

This is the most depressing thing about it:

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

That's good and all, but isn't his son already tapped to take his place?

He's the same exact nut his father was and that means nothing really changes, which sucks for the people in North Korea that deserve better and continues to really suck for South Korea who has to put up with most of their shit.

[Malacite]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

One less asshole in the world.

Here's hoping the DMZ doesn't turn into WW3 in the aftermath though. Japan's currently engaged in an emergency meeting.

[Feba]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

Thing is, North Korea has no allies left. Beijing is simply fed up with their bullshit. The DPRK is going to crumble, it's just a game of international hot potato as to when it happens and who cleans it up. If I were in Seoul, I'd be uncomfortable, but I don't think anyone outside the Korean peninsula is really in any danger; unless they decide that South Korea wouldn't kill them fast enough alone, and decide to annoy Japan.

[Yygdrasil]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

[Icemage]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

The real question is whether the old guard will be willing to hand power over to an untested ~30 year old with no military experience. The last being a big sticking point, seeing how Kim Jong-Il maintained power by telling everyone in N. Korea that the world was out to destroy them and only his valiant defense could keep them "safe". There's a reckoning due in that country at some point when the people finally realize how much the government has systematically pulled the wool over their eyes; whether this is the catalyst that finally cracks the wall of lies remains to be seen.

Either way, they can't keep the charade up forever; the longer they remain in isolation, the more technologically backward they become. While North Korea does have a huge standing army of ~1M soldiers, I wouldn't bet on them in a shooting match with the much more technologically powerful South Koreans, who have enjoyed a very close military and trade relationship with the United States for the past four decades or so, and the gap widens every year.


Icemage

[Raydeus]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

If I was in North Korea I'd probably be way more afraid about external interventionism after this than about problems at home.

But then again, I may be very biased considering the talks about the US Army coming into Mexico to "help" with the drug cartel problem their citizens have been funding for decades. <_<;

[Icemage]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

If I was in North Korea I'd probably be way more afraid about external interventionism after this than about problems at home.

They've got 1 million troops, I think they'll be OK on that front. Not good from the viewpoint of projecting military force (considering they're stuck in a time warp from the 1960s) but way more than "too much trouble" for anyone to bother messing with them militarily on their home turf. Guerilla warfare from a million fanatical brainwashed troops is not the sort of thing you want to contemplate.


Icemage

[Feba]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

Guerilla warfare from a million fanatical brainwashed troops is not the sort of thing you want to contemplate.

I do wonder how much the end of the DPRK will resemble the fall of the Japanese Empire.

[Malacite]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

The real concern, as has been stated on CNN, is again with their nuclear activity though.

The DKRP is the poorest country on the planet (being a pariah will do that) and so who the fuck knows what they've sold or to whom, or who they may yet sell all that enriched uranium to. It's kind of a similar situation with the downed spy drone in Iran - it's not the country that has it we're worried about, it's who their dealing with in their desperation.

Japan is also very rightly concerned about their missiles which can reach them, S. Korea, even Hawaii or Alaska apparently and the son may just try something crazy as a brash show of force to try and instill confidence in the generals.

[Firewind]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

The Military are pretty much in control anyway so why would they want him to act independent? They would be pretty stupid to try and get rid of Kim Jong-Un when putting someone else in charge would risk a civil war in a country they already control anyway.

And to be honest an invasion of North Korea is more likely to go like the First Gulf War. Massive casualties were predicted against the "Loyal and fanatical" Republican Guard and we know how that ended up. Army of conscripts with antiquated equipment and shoddy morale due to starvation and fear vs professional standing army with modern equipment = Most of those conscripts will end up dead purely due to them not being able to surrender fast enough.

Also Korea really does not have a reputation as a military force. Pretty much every single land battle they have been involved in has resulted in a curb stomp battle delivered by the other side with the Chinese coming in to kick out the invaders. Except they don't have the Chinese there to bail them out now. I think they're ahead of Italy and Sparta in the "Most Military Defeats of any Nation in History" department.

[Shygirl]

Re: Kim Jong-Il is dead.

Thing is, North Korea has no allies left. Beijing is simply fed up with their bullshit. The DPRK is going to crumble, it's just a game of international hot potato as to when it happens and who cleans it up. If I were in Seoul, I'd be uncomfortable, but I don't think anyone outside the Korean peninsula is really in any danger; unless they decide that South Korea wouldn't kill them fast enough alone, and decide to annoy Japan.

China has completely ditched NK at the same time and recent and past Russian trade dealings will help keep it afloat.