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  • To Bailout or not?

    Simple question I am curious to know where you American folks stand on the state of your governments current plan to infuse wall street with 700+ Billion dollars.

    As a person (ie. not a canadian) I think this bail out is a gaffe and a huge joke. It is just another shot to middle class and lower, while keeping the money in the rich mans pockets. Yet a further inclination to the trickle down economics that has gripped the USA since the reagan era.

    I want to extend in to this so I will now talk about the central banking system, or the federal reserve (bank) system.

    Established in 1913 the federal reserve is a semi private/public BANK that controls the strings of American economics. It provides the intrest rates, mortgage rates etc etc, based of its own numbers.

    Debt in, Debt out?

    Essentially how this system came about was in response to ecconmic down turn in the early 20th century. It was created to provide the government with money to infuse the ecconomy. With that money came debt, which incurred intrest. To this day the USA still has not re-payed the initial loans from the fed.

    World Wars?

    Many conspire that the fed and its banking families (such as the rothchilds) were responsible for edging the worlds into war. Several other banking families provided the funding through their central banks, to build up to a breaking point. The resault massive loans to government and massive debt.

    Intrest Rates.

    The intrest rates are controlled by the fed, and they manipulate how money flows. In times of high savings (comerce spending) intrest rates are low, and credit is given freely. In times of low savings (comerce spending) Intrest rates are hiked to draw in loans.

    What this means is the federal reserve essentially keeps prices down durring the good times, and high durring the bad times. However this also allows them the power to manipulate the markets to their own whims.

    Lets go back to 1929.

    After years of low intrest rates and high spending. Massive amounts of loans were spread world wide, by all the central banks world wide (another conspircay behind the 6 major banking familys of the time). In 1929, with no warning or reasoning, the major central banks began increasing intrest rates. This created a spiral of recession, that was not escaped. The worlds ecconomy came to a halt due to a coincided Intrest Rate hike. The great Depression was the single greatest "attack" on the populace of the earth, set in motion by these big banks.

    The Gold Standard.

    If you are able to look at a 1 dollar bill from the pre-federal reserve banks area, you will note that it says it is worth its sum in gold. Meaning that the money represented an acctual quantitiy of liquid assests. Now take a look at your 1$ bill, it says legal tender, essentially it is worthless in terms of monetary ecconomics it is just paper.

    The current down turn.

    After years of ecconomic success (following the last instep of the fed durring the late 70's to mid 90's) has seen loans readily available, spending high. However this time we are also combated by a new enemy, big oil. The FED however is pulling its same tricks again, allowing massive loans to be lent, with low over all intest rates, glossing over the fact the money was not comming in. Since 2005 major ecconomic advisors have been informing people, bussiness, government, and the fed that intrest rates did not match the growth.

    Fast Forward to 2007, Intrest rates are increased (claimed to being the fact oil was driving down consumer spending) after 2 years of warnings the fed spikes its intrest rates. Familys who have lost jobs and are scraping by begin to default on loans. Small business who were unable to get a foot hold due to the falsifying message from the government the ecconomy was strong, defaults on loans.

    Here In Canada, we have seen this because of the incredibly fast turn around of our dollar compared to the US dollar. When Intrest Rates Increase this causes a need for more money to be issued, resaulting in a weaker and weaker dollar. Which in turn lowers buying power, and more defaults. This money is directly proportional to debt. It is a physical representitive of what is owed by the american government, and in retro spec its people.

    Debt In. Debt Out 2?

    Here we are on the eve of what is being called the most disturbing ecconomic crisis since the great depression, and the plan is to throw money at it. If you have read this you have a basic Idea of what this means. A 700 Billion dollar loan, is equal to a 700 Billion Dollar Debt. In this sense I mean a Debt to the reserve. They will make 700 Billion 1 Dollar bills, that are worthless. They plan to infuse this 700 Billion dollars into companies that have their own debts being called in. Essentially The american tax payers are looking to pay of double debt. Debt that has been around since 1913, that is not going away any time soon.

    The Rich Get Richer.

    By the rich, I do not mean bill gates. I mean the bankers, the central bank families. The more money borrowed means more money for them. Between this bailout and The Iraq War these banking families who own the federal reserve have made a little over 13.25 Trillion Dollars in debt inccured before Intrest if this bail out goes through. This is the physical amount of money. 13.25 Trillion Dollars Pause on that, Since the out break of the Iraq War that is 2.65 Trillion Dollars a year. Since the government has no real money, and its citizens money is worthless this debt is virtually unpayable. The Gold in Fort Knox that used to match each dollar in circulation, now belongs to the banking families of the federal reserve.



    Ok thats my story about the reserve system. This 700 Billion dollar infusion is as worthless as a 1$ Bill, it has no value. This is a bailout not for Wall Street, But a direct cash payement, to increase debt to 13.25 trillion in 5 years. Completely perpetuated by the Federal Reserve BANK. Whose private owners will get rich, and its public "puppets" will watch in a few months when the fed cuts intrest rates again to balance out. Is it time to call the Bluff? or to wait for a potential Depresion yet again.

    sig courtesy tgm
    retired -08

  • #2
    Re: To Bailout or not?

    I don't fully understand what exactly will happen if a bailout does not occur. I haven't seen that set of consequences addressed in media other than allusions to the idea that it would be catastrophically bad somehow if the market is allowed to follow its natural course and swallow up the financial companies in question. I gather that the bad debt collected by these companies has been packaged and sold to other companies around the world as securities investments, and that should the issuing companies go under those securities will essentially become worthless and likely drag the books of other financial institutions below the red line and cause them to collapse as well. What I want to know is what the impact on myself and other lower and middle class citizens of the western world will be should that happen. What happens to me should my various insurance providers disappear or my mortgage financer fold?

    As an admittedly ham-handed analogy to help illustrate my understanding of the situation, it sounds like the US economy is in the position of someone who has lived beyond their means for far too long and is facing either being kicked to the street or refinancing their debt at a rate that would be impossible to keep up with in the long run, setting up for an even bigger collapse in the future. Neither option is politically advocable but the powers that be seem to be trying to force the latter option to keep us in our comfortable economic dreamworld for a little longer even if it means worse consequences in the future.

    Politically I would rather see the social upheaval and collapse that might come from cascading "market corrections" than grant the government the unchecked power it seems to believe is necessary for it to control this crisis.
    lagolakshmi on Guildwork :: Lago Aletheia on Lodestone

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    • #3
      Re: To Bailout or not?

      I'm not in the US, but the way I understand things a bailout is necessary as a cushion to absorb the shock of said "market corrections" (which will definitely happen) in a controlable way. Just seeing how a few firms going down in a short period of time affected the economy in such a dramatic way is more than enough for me to want it to happen much slower.

      On the other hand there needs to be accountability for what happened, and all the people responsable for the current situation must go to jail, period. There also needs to be a warranty that the goverment's investment will be recovered and even with a profit, regardless of it it takes 10 years or 20.

      It's the only way people who are so upset (with a reason) about fixing all this mess (that they didn't create) will at least have some assurance that this is the best course of action.




      PS > A similar bailout happened here in Mexico not long ago, and while it was required to save the economy there was no accountability at all, zero. They (the banks) just lost all that money and the the goverment said:

      "Here take it for free so you can start over! \(^-^)/" (And of course there was a huge fraud involved on the part of the goverment too. Just one more reason why we are a third world country)

      But fortunately it's unlikely the US people would allow that sort of thing to happen. (Although I haven't seen Bush impeached yet )
      sigpic
      "In this world, the one who has the most fun is the winner!" C.B.
      Prishe's Knight 2004-Forever.

      その目だれの目。

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      • #4
        Re: To Bailout or not?

        The fallout of doing nothing will be far, far worse.

        Bill Clinton was on Larry King tonight citing previous examples of when the U.S. Govt. stepped in to bail out the economy, and every time managed to turn a profit on it for the tax payers. The key thing here is to not rush this.


        Fucking Bush is out of his mind trying to push this through quickly and with unfettered power to Paulson. I mean did he honestly think the Congress would approve handing $700 billion into the hands of one man with no strings attached and the freedom to use it as he sees fit? I'm with Ben Stein on this one; that man should be fired, pronto. He has been a major fuck up from day 1.


        Some intitutions like Leaman Brothers (sp?) shouldn't get bailed out because they're just creditors and they fucked up royally. Though according to Bill it costs a hell of a lot less to bail out a mortgage than the $250,000 foreclosure that the tax payers have to suck up; or something to that effect.


        A.I.G. however, is an investment insurer. People pay them to protect their investments, which is entirely different. Moreover, the company has very extensive connections across the globe.


        Above all else, the one thing the media keeps neglecting to talk about (and Mc Cain misses the point entirely on this when he talks about the banks customers) is that this is not so much about saving these companies "customers" (aka Americans)

        It's about keeping confidence in foreign investors. The U.S.A. will bounce back from this, likely better than it was before but only if all this god damned doom saying stops and something gets done. If other countries suddenly decide to pull their money out and invest in say, China, that's when the real danger will set in.
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        • #5
          Re: To Bailout or not?

          Originally posted by Malacite View Post
          It's about keeping confidence in foreign investors. The U.S.A. will bounce back from this, likely better than it was before but only if all this god damned doom saying stops and something gets done. If other countries suddenly decide to pull their money out and invest in say, China, that's when the real danger will set in.
          The problem there, Mal, is China doesn't SELL their debt - because they don't have any. Neither do most of the countries we don't like (Venezula, Iran, Russia). There isn't anyplace for most of these sovereign wealth funds to put their money but into dollars (and increasingly, Euro's) but since the EU central bank isn't very pro-business the dollar usually wins.

          I've been educating most of my co-workers on macro-economics for the whole week, its kind of depressing how many "College Educated" people I work with have the economic saavy of a newt.
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          • #6
            Re: To Bailout or not?

            While many stem the problem of the economy from the sub-prime meltdown and the declining value of the dollar, little attention -- other than the present problem of wall st. -- is being paid to the commercial side of real estate and development.

            It's my increasingly personal concern that the commercial real estate market will soon crumble regardless of this bailout. There are two main reasons: Equity of the property itself (regardless of lease or ownership) and the equity of the debt itself -- due to the weakening dollar.

            With a bailout of this magnitude, it amounts to an exponential depreciation of the dollar -- totaling more than the entire Iraq war thus far.

            So, it's a catch 22: Watch the market crumble and take everything else with it. Or, we can try to salvage some of what we can of the market with prices increasing in the near future.

            I'm in commercial acquisitions and can say personally that our company is struggling at the moment. The housing market didn't hit south Orange County as hard as it did the rest of the country. But when it comes to the commercial real estate market we are then going to get it from both ends -- commercial & residential. We have Ditech and Greenlight Financial -- two very big names that toted a tremendous amount of aggregated commercial and sub-prime residential loans.

            The question is: to what extent will the commercial real estate market be affected and to what degree will it affect the economy? Perhaps there would be another bailout for the commercial real estate market as well. Only time will tell since the effects haven't come to fruition, and probably won't until around as long as this time next year.

            It's important to keep in mind the shock factor of the statements made by Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke and even my own aforementioned statements. The problem comes in that we don't really know what will happen if we do or don't do this bailout -- despite some of the statements made.

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            • #7
              Re: To Bailout or not?

              If they are to bailout these huge financial institutes then they should do the following.
              1. Freeze the companies share price and cap dividend payout (because as soon as a big sum of money goes in shareholders want a piece of it rather than it sort all teh crap out, banks are one of teh biggest corrupt business around when it comes to shareholders money.
              2. The government should set a maximum sallary for all the big wigs in that said company, so they don't profit from the bailout.
              3. The banks should be amde to pay back the government over time at affordable amounts i.e. 75% of profits. (you'd be amazed how much banks pay out)
              4. financial institutes should be investigated into why they openly gave finacne and mortgages to people who had no chance in meeting their payment which has caused most of this mess in thr first place.


              what every happens in the US has a consequence on eurorpe and many other countries. In the Uk we are already facing a recession now, with house prices dropping, unemployment rising, especially in my industry (the building trade) their have been hundreds of thousands of job losses (mainly fat cat developers axing their work forces to keep their salary going) 3 banks in the Uk have been bought by others and of course the controversial bailout of the Northern rock Bank which sparked the first signs of recession here.

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              • #8
                Re: To Bailout or not?

                Personally I feel that the United States needs to turn to other countries. Unfortunately they bush administration burned a lot of bridges and most of its allies may look at it as paying for a war they did not want to take part in. (Ie. France Canada Germany).

                However this is a world wide issue, not just an american issue. Sure the problem is stemmed from people being able to get loans and credit when they should not be able to, it is further stemmed from what capitalism truly is. This is in my opinion a sign of the end of another age in our government/economic life style. Just Like Colonialism, Imperialism, and Nationalism before it Capitalism has finally reared its ugly head (again) and I think for the last time.

                All countries around the world should be ready to change the way things work. Free Markets, and the ability to do anything with money needs to be adjusted. We need to develop a form of controlled income, and spending. I find it Ironic that the countries who were deemed not free 20 years ago, and moderately free now are not in any debt and have no economical issues (Russia and China). Communism appears to be a safer ecconomical bet than capitalism at last. Not saying we should convert to to a communist ideal but we need to limit credit and spending by banks, and most importantly these central banks, fromt he government.

                The USA has helped hundreds of countries world wide and it is time they pony up. There is a world wide fund that countries pay into that is distributed by the UN, It is time for the USA to suck it up admit they let the world down with Iraq War and plea to the Nations of this world to assist in fixing their ecconomy. It will quickly become a worldwide Issue if it is as bad as they say and that will be much worse.

                700 billion is a lot of cash and even with oversight, it is going to be another debt that will never be paid off. Especially if the funds come from the federal reserve BANK. The Banking families are the real crooks, and now is not the time to feed them more money.

                The stage is set right now for the rothschild dream of a one world bank, and a one world government, it is up to the world to say no to this, or bend over and accept that we will live in a world controlled by very few men.

                Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

                sig courtesy tgm
                retired -08

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                • #9
                  Re: To Bailout or not?

                  Originally posted by Malacite View Post
                  The fallout of doing nothing will be far, far worse.
                  How? This is exactly what I'm talking about. You can count on almost any commentator to regurgitate this common wisdom that not proceeding with a bailout would lead to much worse consequences, but this conclusion is never supported and poorly examined. What exactly are these consequences? Until we know what's on the other side of the scales we're not making an informed judgement.
                  lagolakshmi on Guildwork :: Lago Aletheia on Lodestone

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                  • #10
                    Re: To Bailout or not?

                    Again, consider all the money that other countries have invested into the USA. Now imagine if suddenly their investments begin to tank, and they then decide to pull out their money and/or call in their tabs? (i.e. the U.S.'s trade near $10-trillion trade debt)


                    Imagine what that would do to the economy. The biggest problem is that no one knows exactly how all of this will play out, but the hope is that in bailing out these institutions and seizing their assets and selling them off in the end, the taxpayers will actually profit when this is all over just as they did back in the Great Depression and other crisis.


                    If other countries pull out their cash, that's the end of the US. The US's biggest advantage in the global economy is that it's the largest and most diverse market out there, but China could very well threaten that position which would enviably be the greatest feasible detriment to the US Economy.

                    The country will bounce back. All that's needed is a lot of careful consideration into this proposal and, for a change, proper regulations and oversight. Yeah, I'm looking at you Jonh Mc Cain


                    Consider for a moment what the U.S. economy is worth. It has an annual GDP of $14 Trillion. (or enough to buy Russia 7 times over) however the vast majority of that money comes from foreign investors pouring the money into the USA (the US is more or less the world's largest bazaar; everyone comes to you because it's a huge and friendly market.

                    So there's no question of there being enough money to support all this, at least for the moment. The fear is losing all that foreign capital coming in to China.
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                    "BLAH BLAH BLAH TIDAL WAVE!!!"

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                    • #11
                      Re: To Bailout or not?

                      I just hope if they go forward with this they will at least have done their homework and really look into the situation. Otherwise there's also the chance of all that money going to waste and actually making things worse in the long run. o_O;


                      Trigger happy shotgun aproaches almost never work.


                      ...not even against zombies.
                      sigpic
                      "In this world, the one who has the most fun is the winner!" C.B.
                      Prishe's Knight 2004-Forever.

                      その目だれの目。

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                      • #12
                        Re: To Bailout or not?

                        @Malacite: I should give you some credit for elaborating that far, but none of that speaks to my question of what either option ultimately means to the average person in America or the countries that have a stake in our economy. I realize that you are not Muad'dib and I'm not expecting hard numbers about the probablility of my job being lost or the buying power of my paycheck in a year's time, but surely we can make some reasonable generalizations about the directions those and other factors might go in if foreign investors back out of our market.
                        Originally posted by Raydeus View Post
                        Trigger happy shotgun aproaches almost never work.

                        ...not even against zombies.
                        Are we talking about a single zombie or a mob of them? African or European? These are important factors.
                        lagolakshmi on Guildwork :: Lago Aletheia on Lodestone

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                        • #13
                          Re: To Bailout or not?

                          Originally posted by Taskmage View Post
                          African or European?
                          There are always going to be at least a few European zombies in any given group.

                          A group of only African zombies would be racist.


                          The inverse is not true, however.

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                          • #14
                            Re: To Bailout or not?

                            What about a group of exclusively Haitian zombies?
                            lagolakshmi on Guildwork :: Lago Aletheia on Lodestone

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                            • #15
                              Re: To Bailout or not?

                              Originally posted by Taskmage View Post
                              What about a group of exclusively Haitian zombies?
                              It depends. Are they all black?

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