Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointments

[Feba]

Clinton Wins Indiana, Obama Takes N.C., CBS News Projects Democratic Contenders Will Split Today's Crucial Primaries - CBS News

TPM Election Central | Talking Points Memo | Hillary Reportedly Will Hold No Public Events Tomorrow

[Pai Pai Master]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

Just end it already.

[KingOfZeal]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

I agree. Pai Pai for president!

[DieselBoy09]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

Don't worry, Optimus will rise from the depths of the oceans soon enough to throw his hat in the race.

Autobots ROLLOUT!

[Telera]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

Just end it already.

This. For serious. That's all that needs be said.

[Malacite]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

Pwned.

Obama won North Carolina by 14%, and lost Indiana by only 2%.

She's cooked.

[Kitalrez]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

This is Hillary we're talking about, though.

Sing it with me now... "This is the song that never ends..."

{Edit}

Hillary Clinton says she'll stay in the presidential race

Second verse, same as the first!

[Malacite]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

orz

[Murphie]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

Why should she drop out? I mean, I didn't vote for her, but it's not as though the nominee has to be decided on by default before the DNC.

[Yellow Mage]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

Why should she drop out? I mean, I didn't vote for her, but it's not as though the nominee has to be decided on by default before the DNC.

Agreed. I'm not her biggest fan, either, but, hey, you really can't blame a woman for trying.

[Akashimo]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

Why hasn't the snuke gone off yet?

[Murphie]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

Agreed. I'm not her biggest fan, either, but, hey, you really can't blame a woman for trying.

And it's not as though she is without support. She'd be a fool to bow out now, after how hard she has campaigned. May as well see it through.

[TheGrandMom]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

Why hasn't the snuke gone off yet?

LOLOLOLOL

[Kitalrez]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

Ok, I was bored, and decided to do the math.

There are 6 more primaries left in the race. Of those, here are the dates and totals:

1. WV: 28 pledged, 11 super 5/13/08
2. KY: 51 pledged, 9 super 5/20/08
3. OR: 52 pledged, 8 super 5/20/08
4. Puerto Rico: 63 pledged, 8 super 6/1/08
5. SD: 17 pledged, 8 super 6/3/08
6. MT: 16 pledged, 8 super 6/3/08

I am kind of curious why Puerto Rico has more delegates than the actual states, but here's what the math reveals. If Hillary wins every single contest completely, meaning she grabs all 227 pledged delegates up for grabs, she will still be only 56 pledged delegates ahead of Obama, and still be 385 delegates short of the win. Meaning her 264 super delegates have to come into play there. Also, that still leaves her 121 shy of the nomination. Which means undecided delegates have to side with her, or she's gotta claim some from Obama.

So, that sets up two scenarios for a Clinton nomination. Either she gets handed the nomination by super delegates, or Florida and Michigan must be seated and vote for her. In Florida, she had 126 delegates to Obama's 84. In Michigan, Obama wasn't even on the ballot, and she had 80 delegates. Assuming she picks up both of those, she'd have a net gain of 206 delegates. Now, of the remaining contests, she's polling at or below 50% on most of them, and in areas like West Virginia and Kentucky, he's gaining on her rapidly. She's looking at maybe 113 of those. Which when you add it in, puts them pretty darn close to one another in terms of pledged delegates at the end.

Assuming everything goes right for her in Florida and Michigan, and she gets all of the delegates apportioned to her from those primaries seated. Assuming the polls remain as they are now and she doesn't pull one REALLY AMAZING rabbit out of her hat to win these. The most likely scenario is that she's going to finish just barely behind Obama, best case. Thus, in order for her to win at all, the super delegates have to give it to her. At which point they will have overturned the popular vote, and the race is John McCain's to lose. I say that because if that scenario plays out, at least 1/4 of the total democratic and independent voters in the primaries are going to stay home unless McCain really pisses us off. Hillary won't have been our nominee, and our votes won't have been counted. At this point, congratulations, John McCain just won the election.

[Murphie]

Re: Clinton wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. Clinton cancels tommorow's appointmen

I can't speak for everyone, but I'm voting for which ever Dem candidate gets the nomination. Only an idiot would not vote, or vote for McCain if their favorite doesn't get it.