Synthesizing

[Dux]

Re: Synthesizing

Not for cloths, Dux. I've noticed a disturbing trend with only cloth synthesis, in which they are prone to more botches than any other recipe in that or any other Hand discipline. This probably explains why many players tend to overprice their goods, seeing that they've experienced a larger proportion of botches with cloth making and seek to compensate themselves by passing on the costs to their customers.

In any event, I do have +35 craftsmanship with my gear, so what I saw was an increase of almost 20 points of that stat in upgrading. Since the Undyed Cotton Cloths were previously a R18 recipe and now R15, I thought of "grinding" off that when I hit 14. I never attempted to do this recipe at R13. My work was largely using old gear and hitting up a few cloths and then upgrading and continuing the work. The failures were still there, but it was so noticeable how they just "disappeared" that I couldn't ignore this. On further inspection I was able to gleen from the log (at the time) that instead of the failures I was getting I saw more "success generic" while the number of actual successes remained the same (which wasn't too hot to begin with ... maybe on the order of 20% or so) Basically it was 40% failure converted into 15% failure/25% generic + w/e generic I had before that.

It would have been extremely helpful if you had kept the data for this, such data would have provided a second data point for me and would help steer further investigation.

I still require guild support in making the cloths, however, as it's almost 100% failure (0% success success, maybe 1% success generic) w/o it at this rank.

This is seperate activity in itself which I don't have time to investigate right now.

I also thought of something. That the more points you have in a stat that the curve will be more steeper and then plateaus. For example, 10 points may yield 3% and 15 points may yield 8% and then 20 points may yield 15% and then after 20 points, going beyond, it plateaus (or steeply declines) As you rank up, the scale moves (or the curve widens) but at the early ranks the significance of every point means a lot more and after the first threshold it can be very large and then beyond a second threshold it gets hit hard with DR (diminishing returns)

I stated this as an assumption in my original post that +10 Craftsmanship is not suffient to enter into diminishing returns. However without data to analyse or concrete answers from SE we can only speculate exactly how diminishing returns works, if it is even exists at all. Determining this through data would be no small tasks which I may pick up at a later dtae, however the foolsih man built his house upon the sand and I have more fundamental aspects of crafting to understand first.

[Yygdrasil]

Re: Synthesizing

I have question concerning drops. I've stopped periodically to nuke marmots on my way to a given location... as I'm sure many people do... to feel AWSOME. I've noticed that when I fell these marmots, it doesn't feel as though I get much for killing them. I never expected to get SP... but shards don't seem to drop either. Maybe I'm paying too much attention to watching the poor marmie twitch and smolder and not enough on the messages in my log... but it seems like farming shards from easily killed mobs is less productive than i would have hoped.

[Freelancer]

Re: Synthesizing

Yep, it seems like thats their way of stopping high lvls from going after low lvl mobs for shards, which is great.

[Yygdrasil]

Re: Synthesizing

Yep, it seems like thats their way of stopping high lvls from going after low lvl mobs for shards, which is great.

Just checking. I just wish I knew before I wasted the damage to my gear and the time involved in killing the damn furry bastards.

I'm actually all for this. It helps to discourage high level players from getting shards easily and quickly only to sell them back to the same people who would have benefited from killing the marmies themselves.

[Aeni]

Re: Synthesizing

It would have been extremely helpful if you had kept the data for this, such data would have provided a second data point for me and would help steer further investigation.

I would if I wasn't engaged in chatting and crafting and all of that is squeezed into that one chat box. I hate the chat system, FYI.

This is seperate activity in itself which I don't have time to investigate right now.

I would investigate but right now I'm putting stuff on hold until I can get more inventory space. They seriously just need to get rid of +3 items as drops. No one seems to be interested in buying them (even if they're priced the same as the normal versions and listed alongside it!) and it just adds additional headache with regards to storage.

I stated this as an assumption in my original post that +10 Craftsmanship is not suffient to enter into diminishing returns. However without data to analyse or concrete answers from SE we can only speculate exactly how diminishing returns works, if it is even exists at all. Determining this through data would be no small tasks which I may pick up at a later dtae, however the foolsih man built his house upon the sand and I have more fundamental aspects of crafting to understand first.

You don't need to really analyze closely after you craft a bajillion things over and over again (I'm looking at you Bronze Chain) Right now, I've done very well based on haunches and have taken great care to avoid what I assume to be issues. My track record speaks for itself and I'm not the only one (at least on Palamecia) to think in the same manner (as their record can attest to) The only thing that undermines my position is the fact that I'm a casual player. If I was one of those players that were toting around 100 million gil in the bank with a Rank 50 of a craft I'm sure people would come flocking to me and wanting to know "the secrets of my success". Because I can only devote 1/20th the time these players could, my successes are quite personal and very miniscule in scale, but by no means should it be diminished. Having a few million in the bank and being quite self-sufficient with repairs, materials and shards is a good thing.

[awesomeOmnislashing]

Re: Synthesizing

If I was one of those players that were toting around 100 million gil in the bank with a Rank 50 of a craft I'm sure people would come flocking to me and wanting to know "the secrets of my success". Because I can only devote 1/20th the time these players could, my successes are quite personal and very miniscule in scale, but by no means should it be diminished. Having a few million in the bank and being quite self-sufficient with repairs, materials and shards is a good thing.

I agree

With all of SE's clever designs on slowing down the leveling, it is humorous to me that people got to level 50 when they did. It's no secret, they don't know a more efficient path to the top than you do. Everyone has access to YG and knows which recipes are the cheapest ( especially based on crystal price). Pretty sure they just devoted more time, in a shorter time frame, than others. Nothing more, nothing less =/

Mainly I say this because.. it doesn't seem like there is an alternative route to leveling when it comes to crafting. You do what leves you can, then you grind out the cheapest products. Money doesn't matter due to the fact that SE decided to flood their economy. Inflation anyone? getting 40k for a level 10 quest baffled me. would not be surprised in the least if the truly good items went for near 5-10mil. easy.

[Yygdrasil]

Re: Synthesizing

I agree

With all of SE's clever designs on slowing down the leveling, it is humorous to me that people got to level 50 when they did. It's no secret, they don't know a more efficient path to the top than you do. Everyone has access to YG and knows which recipes are the cheapest ( especially based on crystal price). Pretty sure they just devoted more time, in a shorter time frame, than others. Nothing more, nothing less =/

Mainly I say this because.. it doesn't seem like there is an alternative route to leveling when it comes to crafting. You do what leves you can, then you grind out the cheapest products. Money doesn't matter due to the fact that SE decided to flood their economy. Inflation anyone? getting 40k for a level 10 quest baffled me. would not be surprised in the least if the truly good items went for near 5-10mil. easy.

My fears exactly. I'm happy to be self sufficient atm. I could use a buddy who knew how to woodwork *wink* but thats about it. I'll be happy when any one of my crafts reaches 30+ and I can start to turn a good profit. I'll be even happier when all 3 of my crafts are 30+ and I can be both fat and sassy happy.

For those of you counting at home. I used the word "happy" 4 times. 5 counting this one. I'm looking for a thesaurus as we speak. Hold your trolling at bay.

[awesomeOmnislashing]

Re: Synthesizing

I could use a buddy who knew how to woodwork *wink* .

And you call me out on my innuendo. I guess its just that kind of day. fucksquat anyone?

[Yygdrasil]

Re: Synthesizing

And you call me out on my innuendo. I guess its just that kind of day. fucksquat anyone?

Touche' Salesman. I too have an Uncle.

Also: May I formally welcome you to the no rails to derail FFXIO community at it's finest. You'll fit in just fine you'll like it here.

[awesomeOmnislashing]

Re: Synthesizing

I have noticed we are derailing the top 3/4 threads pretty hard. uhh woops!

so. how about that synthing? glad the lag is gone! heh heh...

[Dux]

Re: Synthesizing

I manged to repeat the test making 80 undyed cotton cloths.

Link to the data http://img37.imagefra.me/i5cd/steven..._3a7_u98xj.jpg

Assumptions
The absolute assurance by SE that +Craftsmanship does affect Progress.
The 80 synthesis results collected are a-typical so the missing 20 synthesis results compare to my first data set of 100 would not have skewed the data significantly.
Yellow Goblin revised the Craft level to 19 from 15.
All other factors to the best of my ability remained the same moon phase, facing direction, equipment used, raw material quality, synthesis support except my Weaver Rank which started at 20, one level above the item cap of 19.


Analysis Of Dataset Two
Mean Progress Improvement
The Superset shows a mean Progress improvement of 0.77 for +10 Craftsmanship (12.77 - 12.00)
The Sucess set shows a mean Progress improvement of 0.64 for +10 Craftsmanship (14.85 - 14.21)
The Fail set shows a mean Progress improvement of 0.29 for +10 Craftsmanship (6.22 - 5.93)
The Sucess Generic shows a mean Progress improvement of 0.92 for +10 Craftsmanship (15.24 - 14.32)

Distribution of +0 Craftsmanship Work Units
Sucess Generic = 105 (29.41%)
Sucess = 155 (43.42%)
Failed = 97 (28.01%)
Total number of work units = 357

Distribution of +10 Craftsmanship Work Units
Sucess Generic = 92 (25.92%)
Sucess = 154 (43.38%)
Failed = 109 (30.70%)
Total number of work units = 355

The number of Sucess Work Units decreased by -0.64% for +10 Craftsmanship (154 - 155 = -1)
The number of Failed Work Units increased by +12.37% for +10 Craftsmanship (109 - 97 = 12)
The number of Sucess Generic Work Units decrease by -12.38% for +10 Craftsmanship (92 - 105 = -13 )


Comparison Between Dataset One (mostly at or below cap) and Dataset Two (above cap)
Comparing the Mean Progress
Dataset two Superset shows a mean Progress benefit of -31.9% (0.77 - 1.13 = 0.36)

Comparing the mean Progress per Work Unit
Dataset two Sucess Generic set shows a mean Progress benefit decrease of -43.56% (0.92 - 1.63 = -0.71)
Dataset two Sucess set shows a mean Progress benefit decrease of -17.95% (0.64 - 0.78 = -0.14)
Dataset two Fail set shows a mean Progress benefit decrease of -9.38% (0.29 - 0.32 = 0.03)

When examining which work unit result is affected the most we find that the order of loss matches the order of greatest benefit when at or below the cap. Sucess Generic loosing the most (-43.56%) when over cap, Sucess being the second biggest looser over cap at (-17.97%) and Fail work units come in last with only (-9.38%) loss. As the order of greatest loss matches the order of greatest gain per Work Unit it suggest this is not a fluke result and is a result of us going over the top of the curve statistically speaking.


Conclusions
Being over the Synthesis Rank has impacted the results.
Being over the Synthesis Rank reduces the mean effectiveness of your Crafting gear by a third in only two Ranks.
The number of Sucess, Failed and Sucess Generic Work Units has not been affect in the same way as in data set one, based on this data I propose that the distribution of Work Units is not affected by +Craftsmanship.
The RNG on crafting appears to be savage. When at or under the cap I received a failure rate of 30% on all Work Units and when over the synthesis cap a failure rate of 29% on all Work Units is observed.

Speculation
If you continue to get higher and higher and higher away from the Synthesis Rank cap will you gear effectively become "useless" and provide no benefit at all?
I wonder what factors influence the distribution of Work Units, as reducing the number of Fail Work Units may prove more effective than increasing the Progress per Sucess and Sucess Generic.

The Road Ahead
I will repeat this experiment again with Undyed Canvas Cloth when the time comes, although the numbers won't match exactly due to upgraded gear and purchasing of the weaver training books the % values should hold true.

[Aeni]

Re: Synthesizing

Many thanks for sharing your data and insights Dux.

Conclusions
Being over the Synthesis Rank has impacted the results.
Being over the Synthesis Rank reduces the mean effectiveness of your Crafting gear by a third in only two Ranks.
The number of Sucess, Failed and Sucess Generic Work Units has not been affect in the same way as in data set one, based on this data I propose that the distribution of Work Units is not affected by +Craftsmanship.

These seem to align very closely with my observations. I also agree that the changes that you can see seem to occur right around two ranks beyond the rank of the recipe you're working at and also two ranks below (at the point where crafting a more "difficult" recipe would be meaningful in the whole cost versus skill gains equation)

The RNG on crafting appears to be savage. When at or under the cap I received a failure rate of 30% on all Work Units and when over the synthesis cap a failure rate of 29% on all Work Units is observed.

RNG is very, very savage on per recipe attempt and yet the numbers smoothen out over many, many of such attempts. I could get 10 straight failed syntheses that lead me from start to botch and then I can have a near flawless series of nothing but successful successes. They really need to put on a loose set of blinders on these ranges.

Just so that I'm not losing anyone here, my idea on "attempt" is the sole basis of the idea where you have enough materials to make one product from a recipe and that processing the recipe is the "attempt". When I use the term "synthesis", I am talking about the individual actions, such as Bold and Standard. Other people would use these terminologies interchangably and it can get confusing at times and I vote we settle on something concrete (or attach legends like I am doing right now)

Speculation
If you continue to get higher and higher and higher away from the Synthesis Rank cap will you gear effectively become "useless" and provide no benefit at all?
I wonder what factors influence the distribution of Work Units, as reducing the number of Fail Work Units may prove more effective than increasing the Progress per Sucess and Sucess Generic.

I think I noticed that the "interference" caused by rank checking goes away when your down to your skivvies. This could be the reason why I see more and more "veteran" players now throw off their gear when crafting things that do not necessarily benefit from the stats (i.e., a recipe 20 ranks lower in order to just have mats to do a recipe that's in their range)

The Road Ahead
I will repeat this experiment again with Undyed Canvas Cloth when the time comes, although the numbers won't match exactly due to upgraded gear and purchasing of the weaver training books the % values should hold true.

It's too bad you're not on the same server or I'd help fund your tests. I would donate a lot of stuff in order to dampen the extraneous costs (unless of course these are stuff that you'd otherwise have done but in small batches over time)

[Dux]

Re: Synthesizing

I think I noticed that the "interference" caused by rank checking goes away when your down to your skivvies. This could be the reason why I see more and more "veteran" players now throw off their gear when crafting things that do not necessarily benefit from the stats (i.e., a recipe 20 ranks lower in order to just have mats to do a recipe that's in their range)

I am not sure how somebody could achieve a benefit in crafting from being only in their underwear. Unless there is an algorithmic flaw somewhere a player ensuring they have no positive statistics should never receive an advantage. It seems more likely that 1 or maybe 2 Ranks is one standard deviation and that after 3 deviations assuming a standard distribution the benfit of the crafting gear becomes so low as to be not worth the repair cost or not visible to the human eye.

I will update my spreadsheet to perform this type of analysis hopefully I can determine what is the standard deviation (assuming a standard distribution curve) and we can use this information to identify futher trends.

It's too bad you're not on the same server or I'd help fund your tests. I would donate a lot of stuff in order to dampen the extraneous costs (unless of course these are stuff that you'd otherwise have done but in small batches over time)

It is expensive on earth crystals and time thats for sure, fortunatly I level Mining and Botany so I can replenish my crystal supplies over time without the need to buy them from other players. I probably wouldn't have made this batch of 80 had I not been doing this investigative work but I am sure I can use them to help push me through 21-24 weaver somehow.

[Aeni]

Re: Synthesizing

I am not sure how somebody could achieve a benefit in crafting from being only in their underwear. Unless there is an algorithmic flaw somewhere a player ensuring they have no positive statistics should never receive an advantage.

There seems to be some failing of the systems check when a player outranks a recipe by maybe around 10? I've had a lot of unexplained failures with Standard syntheses on recipes where I outrank by 15 or so only to find out that the reason was because I had accidentally left gear on (i.e., Rank 6 gear) Dropping down to underwear in frustration produced a "neutral" atmosphere where I neither gain any advantage (i.e., HQ) nor do I experience the unexplained strings of failed syntheses.

It seems having inappropriate gear brings to bear considerable negative pressure to syntheses and yet underwear (i.e., no other gear besides the underwear and tools) does not seem to "do" anything at all.

(On a separate issue, people swear to me that trying to hack at old recipes where you outrank by at least 10 triggers a system check and response in which you get fed abnormal amounts of failed syntheses which can, although quite rarely, lead to botched attempts ... and yet skivvy crafting seems to skirt the issue ... which either leads me to believe it's a bug or SE seems to intend this)

[Dux]

Re: Synthesizing

I did a little bit of analysis on my data breaking it down on a per rank basis, here are my observations.

Assumptions
My data is typical despite the small data sizes

Analysis
You can see the data in this JPEG Data_Per_Rank
Interestingly the Sucess data goes contrary to other results. For ranks 19 it increases as expected. When at the cap there is a very small gain which could be attributed to RNG and probably not indicative of a genuine benefit. However when over the cap by one level we see a 6.68% increase instead of a decrease; comfortingly though we see a big decrease when 2 over the cap. Right now I don't know if this is poor data or that Sucess is handled slighlt differently, I will review this again when I repeat this experiment for Undyed Canvas Cloth.

Conclusions
When you are at the synthesis cap +10 Craftsmanship seemed to have no affect at all.
The benefit you gain from +10 Craftsmanship at one level below the synthesis cap is approximatly the same as the loss you receive when one level over the synthesis cap
The algorithm used in synthesis for +Craftsmanship does have a standard distribution.

Speculation
Maybe by doubling your +Craftsmanship to 20 it may result in larger losses of mean progress compared to being naked. If this is true then stacking +Craftsmanship when over cap could significantly impact your synthesis very quickly.
On the other side of the coin however as we have a standard distribution we can benefit from significant gains in performance by stacking +Craftsmanship when under the cap.
When you are at the crafting rank cap of 50 it is possible that +Craftsmanship will have no use what so ever. It is possible that +Control and +Output stats will become highly desirable at these later stages as they may not follow the same rules as +Craftsmanship.
Given a standard distribution I propose that 4 Ranks +/- the syntheis rank cap is where the punishment / benefit of Craftsmanship plateau's out and anything beyond this we enter into realm of diminishing returns.