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There is indeed ice weather in Batallia Downs. I can't say for sure how rare it is because I spend very little time in that area. However, I suggest heading through Ranguemont Pass to Beaucedine Glacier for your ice weather. It's much more common there and you should be able to get through the pass pretty easily with Sneak/Invis (maybe get a friend to escort you if you don't know your way, or consult a map online). The only other thing I can say is to check the Weather Teller NPC in Jeuno (I believe she's in Lower Jeuno) and keep checking on Batallia. I guess you could just ask her every ~hour or so, as she predicts several days in advance.
Its related to what time of year it is in Vana'diel. Months 11, 12 1 and 2 all have a chance of having snow show up in Batallia Downs. Still its pretty rare.
I've seen ice in Batallia a handful of times, but it's INCREDIBLY rare. You could easily spend two or three weeks sitting out there 24 hours a day and never see it. I agree that going to Beaucedine is your best bet. Just hang out right outside the Ranguemont zone until the weather changes to ice. It probably won't take more than 30 minutes or so.
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