E-Bow.. Worth it?

[greysenn]

So how do you know hit rate does not vary from day to day? Do you have logs proving it doesnt?

[Spider-Dan]

Originally posted by greysenn
So how do you know hit rate does not vary from day to day? Do you have logs proving it doesnt?

How do you know hit rate doesn't vary by amount of items you have in your inventory? How do you know accuracy doesn't change the more you use one weapon? What about phase of the moon?

We can sit around all day and think up all sorts of superstitious "factors" that influence the game. The onus is on the person making the claim to provide the evidence.

Now, I could (and would) be perfectly willing to provide a log showing that 10% accuracy increase = substantial damage output difference (in fact, there are enough existing logs for me to do this offhand). But what would be the point? You have already dismissed 10% accuracy difference as being within the realm of a "bad day" anyway. (And naturally, proof of this "bad day" theory is non-existant and not likely to appear, given the distaste for actual logging that seems to prevalent in this thread.)

If someone shows me two logs, same level, same equipment, same party setup, where over the course of 1000 shots there is a 10%+ accuracy difference between one day and another, then I'll believe in this "bad day" theory. Until then, anecdotal evidence about how "I missed a bunch of Sidewinders one day but landed a bunch on another day" won't cut it.

[greysenn]

So you're putting forth a hypothesis that a sample in a given time frame won't vary from those in another.

I'm putting for the hypothesis that they can, and probably do. I find it funny you can simply dismiss that as mere supersticion when day/moon affects or is suspected to affect nearly everything else.

Now, I could (and would) be perfectly willing to provide a log showing that 10% accuracy increase = substantial damage output difference (in fact, there are enough existing logs for me to do this offhand).

No need to, I don't doubt it. Nor do I need to produce logs that a significant attack increase will produce similar results.

[Spider-Dan]

Originally posted by greysenn
So you're putting forth a hypothesis that a sample in a given time frame won't vary from those in another.

I'm putting for the hypothesis that they can, and probably do. I find it funny you can simply dismiss that as mere supersticion when day/moon affects or is suspected to affect nearly everything else.

Actually, to clarify, I'm saying that if you think hit rates vary by day, prove it. You're the one(s) making the claim that hit rate is being affected by some factor that the log is not accounting for.

This whole line of reasoning is flawed anyway; if you're saying that you think hit rate is affected by day/moon, in a direct comparison (like the gun/e-bow log that started this) both players would be equally affected, so the net impact is zero.

No need to, I don't doubt it. Nor do I need to produce logs that a significant attack increase will produce similar results.

The problem, then, is determining how much difference more accuracy makes. Does MC's better accuracy put it over the top in total damage vs. E-bow? We'll never know unless we see logs.

[Drachol]

Here's a log i recorded last night, i hope it helps you!

[Spider-Dan]

That looks about right.

[poweryoga]

And WHY is it too small? It is a sample size of ONE THOUSAND! Jesus christ, do you not understand basic statistics? Do you think that your accuracy magically gets worse because it's Tuesday, no matter how many shots you fire?

Ok, so if I have a sample size of 10, you're saying the accuracy rates will be exactly the same as you get 10000 shots.

Give me a break. Anybody with half ass knowledge knows the statistics become more accurate with higher sample size taken. Small amounts like 1000 shots increases your error margin beyond acceptable levels simply because there's not enough data to make a good average, but I'm sure you already know that given your abudant knowledge of statics as a whole already.

1000 shots will tell you exactly what your accuracy is. If you are saying that it won't, you better have some hard evidence to explain WHY, instead of this "I got up on the wrong side of the bed, it can't be explained!" crap.

Hello? Do you speak English? Am I typing in slang or Ebonics or spanish such that you don't understand what I have said? I never said "Bad day affects your statistics everyday so that it can't be explained", i said "since you can hit 1000 shots in an exp party, you can attribute that to a bad day because you hit that in 1 exp session." a "Bad day" is within acceptable error margin in the long run or within a big log of whatever data you've collected.

AND i keep on repeating myself 1000 is too small of a sample size. It'll tell you your accuracy FOR THE SESSION, not your accuracy for even the whole level. I don't know why you think 1000 is such a big number. Its a TINY number.

Stop attributing whatever i say to bad luck. I never did, I say it CAN affect your stats, but up to a 10% reasonable error margin, but you're the one putting that shit in my mouth. Stop fucking yourself over please.

You have already dismissed 10% accuracy difference as being within the realm of a "bad day" anyway. (And naturally, proof of this "bad day" theory is non-existant and not likely to appear, given the distaste for actual logging that seems to prevalent in this thread.)

Here we go with the "bad day" crap again. Reread my posts, I believe they are in english and easy for even the dumbest person to understand provided you actually READ it.

I'm trying to actually approach the problem with logged data and statistics (i.e. actual scientific inquiry); meanwhile, you just want to stand around and attribute everything to bad days. I'm getting tired of trying to explain the obvious benefit of logged data. If you still can't understand the extremely simple fact of LOGGED COMPARISON > UNLOGGED COMPARISON, then you are just a hopeless idiot, and you can't be reasoned with. Have fun with that.

What's this stupid crap with bad days? Oh yeah, I never attributed bad days to all errors.

I totally understand the values of logged data Vs Unlogged data. I'm just unwilling to waste my time for you, seeing how you have spurred me to think this is nothing but a waste of time trying to argue to a brick wall, and that even if I posted the results, you'll just ignore it and nitpick on some wording usage and attribute my arguments to "bad days" when I only said it can affect your results, not that it "dominates" it. If I want to collect data, it'll be over a set of levels, not over 1 exp session and call it "Ok! done!"

Please, learn to read, get a clue, and come back later. Clear your head, read the information, and come back and post when you don't cloud your head with stupid angry thoughts on "omg he doesn't listen".

You're the one not listening, a lot of your points CAN be valid if you actually put some thoughts into making it instead of wildly pointing fingers on something I don't even believe is right.

here's stuff I posted for your convenience, re-read it again and see how wrong your wild accusations are. Your arguments are valid and something I would've thought about looking into until you stopped listening and started putting words in my mouth.

Also yes, its valid to see how much more damage M.Cst.Bow would do over E-bow or vice versa. You can do it yourself when you hit 71, I don't really want to waste any more time with you.

I use that as an example of "bad day" as an example, not "omg change subject to WS plz". with 1000 WSes, random luck WOULD be virtually eliminated, with a set amount percentage error for "off days". "Bad days" don't dissapear automatically when you collect a large data size you know. Also, you never actually said "1000 Wses", all you said was "1000 shots, 1000 shots..." 1000 shots doesn't mean what you WANT it to, it means exactly what the word means... I

Maybe you should read more carefully because I've said that in the beginning already. Also, you completely missed my point again. I said 10% deviation is ACCEPTABLE for a large enough sample size. I never said "random luck outweight everything", you're just putting words in my mouth or making stupid references.

In a big enough sample size, 10% is an acceptable deviation for testing purposes. I'm not saying there's a 10% accuracy deviation, I'm saying its a deviation taking into account of "bad days", crappy tanks, and other random circumstances.

The weapon skills E-bow does more than covers the 10% gap, but that's besides the point. Nobody is saying there needs to be a 10% disadvantage, you're making shit up as you go along. I said 10% is an acceptable error margin for testing purposes, not 1 person has a 10% advantage over another.

[greysenn]

Actually he was yelling at me for the 10% being BS yoga. :p I think that a +/-5% hit rate from session to session on the same mobs isn't too unreasonable. i've been doing a ton of AF key stuff lately, maybe I can get some parses off of that.

[poweryoga]

10% is usually a good error margin for every scientific experiment and material values so I thought I'd use that. Dismissing 10% as BS and any sort of error margin is stupid, seeing how all the resistors/capacitors/inductors/transformers/etc and all that crap I use in labs and some other solutions are all"10% error" on the datasheets and whatnot... :spin:

but I'm not sure how Coffer key mobs con to you, if they're anything less than IT then they won't give accurate results since you won't really miss on IT mobs. :dead: :dead: :dead:

[Spider-Dan]

Originally posted by poweryoga
10% is usually a good error margin for every scientific experiment and material values so I thought I'd use that.

Uhh, no, it's not.

Perhaps you should do some basic background research on statistical significance (or try this one) before you say things like that. 10% is usually not an acceptable margin of error for any experiment, much less every experiment.

[greysenn]

More ancedotal evidence!

http://ffxi.allakhazam.com/db/jobs.h...73543542&num=3

[Chucklez_1]

Sorry for butting in here...but poweryoga...I don't think you know much about statistics...10% marginal difference is unacceptable.

Also...a sample size of 1000 sample is WAY MORE THAN ENOUGH to predict this. To make a sample acceptable to present the whole, it has to be greater than 25 (30 for some). Having a 'bad luck' doesn't become an issue with 1000 sample size simply because unlike IRL, there's not a lot of variables to mess up accuracy and overall dmg in FFXI (I.E. rangers don't wear blurry contacts, or have cold hands, or not feeling well...lol well you get what i mean...to make this sample too different from another sample).

Anyhoo, Spidey thanks! I liked your straight up facts...I was actually thinking of saving up money for E. Bow but meh...

[greysenn]

Really? That 400ish sample above shows that the ranger with overall lower agi and ranged acc shot more accurately over the course of the session. There may very well be other factors from day to day with it, other than the RNG.

Of course we know with a large enough sample, averages will (should) shift the advantage to the ranger with overall higher accuracy, but how large does the sample have to be for that to happen? I don't think it's practical to get several decently sized samples and average them until you're xping at/or around 75 for merit points.

[Finny]

ehh... i didnt really read the rest of this thread but I would say eurytos bow is only the best you can get until lvl 67, though it is a valid weapon for your entire rng career. I also saw something about shigeto+1, I have this bow on ragnarok server and it does out damage eurytos very slighty (maybe 5 points of damage a shot) anyway the +1 isnt a big improvement over the regular at all. im sure the regular out dmgs eurytos by a little bit too.

i've been exping alot in the aura statue room in ruavitau for merits and here is the average damage per shot (my observation)from weapons i've seen/used:

eury + lightning arrow: 105-110 (not me)
shigeto+1 + lightning arrow: 110-115
othinus' + darksteel /w acid on: 135-140
hellfire + silver bullet: 130

I would have to say that othinus seems to kill the mob the fastest for me, but its really a matter of preference I guess.

-with bows you can use the PP arrow which has +40 rng. acc that allows you to launch a sidewinder at low% tp for skillchains and stuff and its the cheapest to use because you can stick to scorpion arrows without a really noticable gap in damage from using the best arrows.

-with othinus' you get the most damage with darksteel bolt + acid bolt combination, though you have to wait for the acid bolt affect to stick. (othinus is also the best ranged weapon for soloing)

-gun is the simplest of all the ranged weapons ctrl + d cant go wrong with this, always get top-notch dmg and tp generation.

[Spider-Dan]

Originally posted by greysenn
Really? That 400ish sample above shows that the ranger with overall lower agi and ranged acc shot more accurately over the course of the session. There may very well be other factors from day to day with it, other than the RNG.

That sample involves a RNG who was admittedly not even fully paying attention (direct quote: "So I didnt shoot as much, cause I was semi-afk (changing dippers to a baby, feeding etc) a periode and did my 3 shoot macro and build tp.)") When you aren't paying attention, you aren't using Sharpshot as much, you aren't noticing when the mob has just gotten a buff, etc. With the same weapon, one of these rangers shot almost 25% less than the other.

The log does provide some info, but I think it would be better to compare two people who are both actually playing, instead of dealing with babies, watching a movie, cooking dinner, etc.