Prices dropping...fast

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

That's a fairly profound post, Mhurron. However, the fact remains that prices across all world servers started taking a TREMENDOUS plunge at the exact same time Phantasy Star Universe made its debut.

The "plunge" was taking place well before PSU's release, however. It wasn't sudden on my server by any means. Its been a steady decrease ever since the initial hype of the expansion died down and ISNMs came into the picture, amoung other things.

[Aeni]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

1. Inflation won't be as bad this year.
2. Less RMT 'gil dumping' will be available this year, now that SE is cracking down actively against known RMT (With possible lock on IP/Regional information)

As the game matures, more and more players will have access to rare/ex items, which often times replaces the more expensive rare items. I attribute this to the really nice drops you can get from doing assaults and having an more NMs available that drop rare/ex items or highly sought after items.

As more and more players start to get things like an SH, those items will no longer be considered of worth. Therefore, these items will be commonly traded the way NPC sold items currently are.

You can also chalk it up to both the greed of RMT (Having to constantly dump something like Vclaw with rapidity into the market) and also the general shift in population (That of players leaving the game)

The older the game gets, the less and less players will come on to replace those that leave. There will then come a threshold in which the game can no longer be self-sustaining and will start to cost the company, at which time SE will probably announce the retirement of the game.

With a smaller population of new players in comparison to the growing size of "veteran player" population, you will actually see (in general) the continuation of deflation. Demand will continue to diminish for products and the supply will rise in ever increasing quantities. Again, there's two things to blame in both RMT and a decrease in population.

[Susurrus]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

I don't know where you're seeing this decrease in population....I still /sea the same amount of people on Ragnarok that I always have. Maybe things are different on you server, Hades?

[Pai Pai Master]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

An excellent point, Icemage, although it does not make any justification for the act of fish-botting (not that you're necessarily saying it does or does not).

Fish-botting as an example though, there are just too many factors that come into play inside and outside of the game to point at one thing and say "this is the reason prices are dropping."

SE's been doing far more recently than they have in the past, but there are also plenty of other reasons for why the economy is acting like it is now. The best we can hope for is that both the negative and positive changes we see in the next few months don't have so much of an effect on the economy that it makes the game less enjoyable.

[little ninja]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

LoL ICEMAGE your using some of my old quotes from the fishing site. I stated they make easy 200k min to over 1mil a day. ahh fun times,

But honestly gimping fish sales to npc didnt deflate the economy. the big factor was removing 300million from the servers. thats the #1 cause, After that prices started to drop a bit. Then people trying to make a ton of gil flooded the market with old gear, an highend gear hoping to get every cent they could inhopes of rebuying ti for a cheaper price. so during the horrid inflation u had 1-2 haubys up, 2 weeks later you had 14 up.

After that ToUA came out, an it introduced other gear options, an better drop rates on fangs, an spider webs. But like its already been stated. Gil is being sold at like 35 per mil, last your around christmas 7bucks per mil. i definately feel the RMT are hording the gil to flood the markets.

[Likibiki]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

Fish botters have popped up in Windy waters on Pandy now, by Ensasa's shop.

They just fish up moat carp/gold carp until they hit fatigue, then log off onto another character (all naked mithra btw ^^) and do it again... all day every day.

It won't be adding much gil (Although stacks of gold carp sell nicely to npc's) but it will be adding some, especially when you consider they do it 24/7...

[Icemage]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

Fish botters have popped up in Windy waters on Pandy now, by Ensasa's shop.
They just fish up moat carp/gold carp until they hit fatigue, then log off onto another character (all naked mithra btw ^^) and do it again... all day every day.
It won't be adding much gil (Although stacks of gold carp sell nicely to npc's) but it will be adding some, especially when you consider they do it 24/7...

This is peanuts considering they used to fish 24/7 for black sole, which would sell for 2600 or so each.

P.S. to little ninja: I didn't quote you because those figures have been widely discussed on a number of forums (not just you-know-where). By the by, the only time fishermen could make 1M "new" gil per day was during the early part of the rusty cap fishing craze.


Icemage

[Likibiki]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

Yeah, it's a lot less, but there's 10-15 bots in Windy Waters (maybe more in other zones too) and if they get 5-6 Gold Carp per bot per fishing session (which is doable), that's 1.5k ish. That's at least 20k per session - or roughly an hour - which is 440k a day, just from NPC'd fish.

Chances are they're fishing carps in other places too, which means even more money.

No, it's not on the Black Sole or Rusty Cap level, but it's enough to make a noticeable difference I think.

[Taskmage]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

There are a handful of bots by the fishing guild on my server, which does a bit to explain bream being 4500 a stack now. What really sucks is the bot in SSG. It's pretty amusing seeing it get one-shat by a Big Jaw every ten minutes, but really unamusing to see it catching its share of grimmonite in the intervening time.

I can appreciate that the botters pushing their wares through the AH is significantly better for the economy as a whole than the old practice of selling to NPCs, but that thought is a small comfort when I'm scrounging through food and fish listings trying to find anything that still turns a fair profit.

[little ninja]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

The time line is set. Oct less an less items appear on A.H. mid Nov, there is an odd increase of items. that starts the inflation of the market. Dec will introduce gil prices slashed.

So now servers with 1bil in ciculation will now notice 10bil in ciculations.

[Malevolent]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

Yeah on fairy prices have been slowly dropping. My earth dark and light ores havn't been selling too great. Just noticed prices went from 600k to 300k hopping Utsusemi ichi and Ni will drop as well... crossing my fingers.

[Queen Uma]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

I looked on the AH last night and there were 17 Scorpion Harnesses listed. Put in a few cheeky bids but looks like no-one was trying to skip the AH fees or just show off. I don't think I've ever seen this many SH being sold at the same time, coincidentally there was also 4 SH+1s, 6 Haubys, 1 Hauby +1 and no Byrnies, Hauberks or their respective +1s.

Maybe people have realised they don't need to overdoes on the acc equipment in the new zones.

[Aeni]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

I don't know where you're seeing this decrease in population....I still /sea the same amount of people on Ragnarok that I always have. Maybe things are different on you server, Hades?

Bolded for emphasis. You mean after 3+ years and expanding into new territories (Namely, EU) that the population hasn't increased? So, what has happened? Yes, it's been decreasing.

JP/NA players leaving
EU players coming on to replace

= Same number of people.

Now, fast forward a year from now. What happens when EU players start to leave and SE don't expand into *gasp* China or Russia or Africa, etc... Who's going to replace them?

[little ninja]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

I looked on the AH last night and there were 17 Scorpion Harnesses listed. Put in a few cheeky bids but looks like no-one was trying to skip the AH fees or just show off. I don't think I've ever seen this many SH being sold at the same time, coincidentally there was also 4 SH+1s, 6 Haubys, 1 Hauby +1 and no Byrnies, Hauberks or their respective +1s.
Maybe people have realised they don't need to overdoes on the acc equipment in the new zones.

There are other cheaper alternetives now to those gears. + the next wave of players finally realized. you miss just as much with 43acc, as you do with 10 acc. Throw in the fact things like D-ignot an V-claw are easy to obtain during KS30.

Yeah during MMO FFXI there is always a new wave of players to replensih those who left. jpn > na > ps2 > euro > 360. An dont forget the waves of RMT added in. Sure you may see 3k peeps on, but how many are actually playing an not bazaar mules, how many arent RMT sworms.

[Jei]

Re: Prices dropping...fast

I think bastore bream still selling for 7-8k/stack to NPC. There used to be a lot of bots just catching breams all day at the fishing guild. Pretty sure they can still do that efficiently with 6-7 accounts fishing at once. They'll end up with 9-10 stacks, 70-100k per character before they hit fatigue. Not something a normal fisher would want to do either because of the low bite rate of bream there.
haven't been to fishing guild lately, don't know if they're still there.