Moon effecting sucsess

[pearlsea]

Ive noticed whenever crafting on waning gibious i get very poor results so im wondering what stage of the moon cycle is the best for success? I cant find this info anywhere ATM.

[Brayden]

Re: Moon effecting sucsess

I beleive the general rule is the closer a moon is to full (100%) the better crafting success rate are. (success = making your item, not HQing it etc)

[Caspian]

Re: Moon effecting sucsess

Doesn't full moon also increase HQ success as well?

[Shishimura]

Re: Moon effecting sucsess

Moon impact...

New moon has a positive impact on success and reduced loss of item on a failed synth and a negative impact on skill ups and HQ.

Full moon has a positive impact on skill ups and HQs and a negative impact on success and increases chance of lost item for failed synth.

From my research and experience.

In some ways the Moon is roughly equal to light and day. New moon sort of light and full moon sort of dark. Which is strangely opposite of what one might expect.

[Last_Viper]

Re: Moon effecting sucsess

here you 'maybe' go crafting tool

[Jei]

Re: Moon effecting sucsess

I usually have very nice HQ cookiung rate around 40-60% moon.

[sevenpointflaw]

Re: Moon effecting sucsess

You know, this cracks me up. TO this day people can't agree on how it works. Everyone I talk to on my server swears up and down that New Moon = good HQ, bad success. Full moon = bad hq, good success. Everyone I talk to who plays on another server swears up and down its exactly the opposite. One forum says New Moon FTW! QTF! Another says Full Moon FTW.

Whatever. So far as I can tell its just people saying "in my experience" which means they havn't actually tested it -seriously- but rather thats just the way it seems. But then to some people it seems like using an appollo staff on lights day to make light crystal items means you're garunteed a HQ1, and to others it seems like having a four-leaf helps 10% of the time.

Does anyone actually have -HARD- data on this? I'm not talking about "I test it with craft X, item X for an hour and made it 50 times"; i'm talking about extended period, hard data, difinitive proof one way or the other instead of "I read somewhere..." or "I think..."

[Jei]

Re: Moon effecting sucsess

This is a quote from alla... it sounds the "most interesting" out of all theories I've read.

From what ive read here and there, and noted on other servers.. No one knows how to make these!!! Seriously, i think Siren server is the only one with people who actively try to make panther +1s and succeed. I for one have made probaby 5x the number of panther +1s than my next closest competition.. so wanna know what i do? Good! Read and learn, dont !@#$%^&* because you cant hq them.

Fist off this only pertains to a 101+ leathercrafter. If you are less than 101 with armors, guild support should work, but also note that if you are 101 or above with armors, guild support does not matter.. i have made most of my panther +1s in Jeuno.. and only 5 that i can recall i actually used guild support.

When to synth:
I use a nice little chart to determine exactly when to synth. which i could spend all night doing ascii art to graphically depict it, but im not going to.. So, i'll just explain it the best i can.
Moon phases: There are only 4 moon phases that you need to concern yourself with.. These being Full moon (90%-100%-95%), New moon(10%-0%-5%), First quarter moon(40%-55% Up), and Last quarter moon(60%-45% Down). I put in the percentages just for clarification later.
Everyone knows that each moon phase is 15%, so there is 1 game day left off of each particular moon phase. SO: Since Panther Masks are a Tier 0 Ice synth, you want to synth on a game day with the absolute strongest possible elemental opposition to Ice. Which, in this case, would be a Firesday. But just synthing on any given firesday could return a hq, but the odds are greatly lower unless you actually find the best firesday to synth on.
The best firesday possible to synth on would be Firesday New Moon 0%. Why? Because when firesday falls on 0%, iceday will be at 7% and 12% game time.. NO iceday in that new moon phase, so there is no corresponding ice element in the phase to add any resistance to +1ing these. Sounds tricky huh? Not really. If you look here ~> http://ffxi.lokyst.net/timer/crafttimer.html you see a nice crafting timer. Just set the maximum displayed days to like 1000 or something. When Iceday falls on 88% WXG, 38% WXC, 12% WNC, or 62% WNG, Synth on the following Firesday.

Now, I'm not going to explain this part.. just take it as i give it. When doing your panther synths, grab a bunch of them, you never know what could happen... FACE Northwest on Firesday and synth between 12:00 and 15:00 Game time, or synth at 21:00-24:00 game time in the moon phase lacking an iceday, and you will inevidably get a nice hq.

Sorry, im not great at explaining these things, but this also works for any tier0 synth, only times and directions are a little different..
The best ive done with Panther Mask +1s however was 7 out of 36 on new moon firesday 0% facing northwest at specified times. I may not make one every day, but i am well known for making Panther +1s all the time.. ask Alucards.. i made him one out of a total of 4 synths.. or Treefidy who loves to buy them from me and resell for profit at the ah Smile

Good Luck...



Also, if you do something like 10 synths and dont hq one.. well, it happens. i cant make them hq for you, i can just tell you exactly when to synth them and hopefully all goes well. but they are still a lvl 100+ synth, so you cant hq them all the time. ^.^

[ioshua]

Re: Moon effecting sucsess

Jei, if I understand that guy's theory correctly he's saying that if there's no supporting element during a moon phase then you have a higher chance of HQ ups.

"NO iceday in that new moon phase, so there is no corresponding ice element in the phase to add any resistance to +1ing these."

Looking at the link to the calendar he provided, there aren't any new moon phases without an iceday for at least the next 5 years. Not that it isn't an interesting theory but, if the calendar is to be trusted, one that is almost impossible to test. The only day that really stood out to not be present in every new moon was Dark.

[Jei]

Re: Moon effecting sucsess

He gave 4 moon phases tho. I think you can try pick any out of the 4 that has no ice.

[Wertyone]

Re: Moon effecting sucsess

Does anyone actually have -HARD- data on this? I'm not talking about "I test it with craft X, item X for an hour and made it 50 times"; i'm talking about extended period, hard data, difinitive proof one way or the other instead of "I read somewhere..." or "I think..."

The problem with trying to do any type of extensive testing is the many factors that could go into determining the out come of a synth.

Moon phase, time of day, day, direction faced, skill level, level from or above cap, equipment worn, mog enhancment, guild support, weather or city synthing in and guild items, and the random generator from the server

Some people would argue that each of the above mentioned items can change the out come of a synth.

In order to test for an HQ theroy, you would have to be able to control each of these criteria. Most are easy to control, but time of day, moon phase and day of the week will not match up very often. And when they do it could be 3:00 in the morning in RL the first time and then 12:00 in the afternoon the next time.

So you have a limited window, that will have the same variables, in which to preform your your testing. One game day is around 45 RL minutes and you can only synth once every 10-15 seconds or so. Tht will give you between 270 and 180 synths, if the item is stackable. If the item or the ingrediants are not stackable you have to take out time to send items to a mule or sell to an NPC.

Now if there are time windows, as some suggest, of 8 time zones during each game day then you only have 33 to 23 synths for each window for each game day.

So to compile even 1000 syths, with the same variables, you would need to hit this window roughly 30 to 43 times. It would take either a team of crafters all working toward the same goal, or a couple of years to compile even that small amount of data, and then some people would still say that 1000 synths is just too small of a pool, and that you need at least 10,000 synths inorder to produce any kind of real hard data.

Now IF this could ever be accomplished, do you think those that put this kind of testing together would share it with the rest of the crafting world?