Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

[sevenpointflaw]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

Okay. I'm down to 35gil, and have to wait for stuff to sell. I'll end up with a very marginal profit on this, mostly because I wasn't paying attention and Tenshodo was selling CK for well over 16k because I had baught them out so many days consecutive. Managed to catch it in time to head over to norg and get them at non-infalted price before I dug myself a grave.

Since I do make a passable profit doing this, I'm seriously considering expanding this test to include 100 desynths on each day of the week during the first/last quarter moons, and esteblishing the control group as an average of all desynths. It should be easy enough to do, considering the way I document everything keeps all synths seperated into groups by day regardless.

Double Post Edited:

1/10th of the way through? geez... oh well, I wish you luck. I never belived directional synthing, but whats the hurt of taking .5 seconds to do it anyway?

Mostly because I got on the computer at the end of Iceday, which is promptly followed by three days presumed to affect crafting (Lightning, Light, and Darks), which are all seperate tests in and of themselves.

Consequently, when I am at my computer and aware of the in-game time, I can crank out about 35-45 synths within the span of one IC day. So it isn't a matter of "it takes long" but rather a matter of "I have to remember to be at the computer."

EDIT: While its fairly well established in my mind that day of the week affects synth results, its interesting to note - even this earlier in the testing, that Lightsday shows a roughtly 7%-8% increase in overall successes compared to Lightningday. I'm really looking forward to performing these tests on Earthday and Darksday and seeing how they compare as well. To say nothing of when all of this is complete, and I move on to changing actual directions.

[Sabaron]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

Remember that most people consider direction to be a "lesser" effect, so you may not see any effect except under certain conditions. Also, if you are using Desynthesis, with respect to various elemental effects (e.g. Day of the Week), it does not appear to behave in the same way as Synthesis. I have done a lot of Lightning Desynthesis on Saparas (for cheap Brass) and Goblin Masks (for Glass Fiber) and I've always had more luck on Watersday and Darksday than on Lightningsday and Lightsday, but the sheer randomocity of the Desynthesis serves to obscure the results. Here is an excerpt from my post in Alchemy (understand that I've never done any actual testing on the subject, but go for the much easier safe-than-sorry methodology).

The Direction You Face*
* - There have been studies on many FFXI web communities and there seems to be evidence to suggest that this affects your crafting results, but most agree it is to a lesser degree than the Moon and Day. There is a Star Chart NPC in each of the starting towns.

Dark: North
Light: Northeast
Ice: East
Wind: Southeast
Earth: South
Lightning: Southwest
Water: West
Fire: Northwest

Since the effect is lesser, it is most commonly assumed that direction is only half strength, so it can only serve to buffer the effect of the moon and to enable you to use Free Synthesis effectively. Since partial skill points don't really help, Free Synthesis might not be effective unless you combine it with direction. Free Synteshesis doesn't last very long, so I generally don't bother.

Direction of my crystal: -0.5 Recipe Difficulty
Direction opposing my crystal: +0.5 Recipe Difficulty
Other Direction: +0 Recipe Difficulty

[sevenpointflaw]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

I'm very familiar with the theory, and I'm also well away of the supposed randomness of desynthing. Either way though, it should still be a documentable effect. If there is no noticable change, then there is no change. If there is, then there is.

I'm only starting with desynthasis. Its an easy one I do regularly anyhow, so might as well document and whatnot. Either way, I'll move on to actual synth, and then skill up, once the first part of the study is done.

As for your quote about "evidence that suggest this affects your crafting results" I would love to see that evidence. The majority of people seem to agree direcction affects your crafting, but no one can provide document proof one way or the other. The most I have seen is someone documenting 10 synths in one direction and 10 in another. Everything else is just hearsay and "seems to me."

[Sabaron]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

Search Alla (if you go there anymore). There are a number of posts there with data and a lot of individual opinions on their thoughts regarding it. I belive Taskmage and Caspian did a thread a while ago on a similar subject (day of the week vs. HQ i think):

http://www.ffxionline.com/forums/cra...Crafting+Myths

I won't post the Alla links, but I would suggest using the terms "FFXI Directional Synthesis Experiment" on Google.

The lack of concrete data is the primary reason I *'ed my little guide. "Evidence" is not "Proof", and as can be seen in any courtroom does not necessarily reflect cause, effect, or process. It is always quite possible for "Evidence" as such to be merely coincidental.

My logic says that: If there is a Star Map NPC in each town then the Constellations probably do something--even if it doesn't relate to crafting. I thought of going out to someplace like a high hill in Meriphataud or maybe Valkurm to look out at the stars and actually face the constellations rather than just their general direction, but haven't got around to it yet (you can see them in the sky easily as the various stars are actually the color of their element).

Sorry for the late reply, I've been busy running around getting my avatars.

[sevenpointflaw]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

Added some more data for both Windsday and Iceday from my test last night. Because it is much easier to hit specific days during the moons I'm testing on, I've decided to expand the test a bit (again). I'm just going to keep collecting "control" data on the various days of the week until I have a hundred desynths on all the days.

This will let people create a control group out of the data in any number of ways. They can compare directional synth on a per-day basis, average all days together, uses just neutral days as the control grouo and ignore other days, or what have you.

Sabaron: Thanks for the post and the forum PM. I gave a cursory glance at the information on alla in that thread. A little lacking, in my opinion. Either way it was an interseting read. Thanks much.

[Nakti]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

Directional synthing has always been of interest to me.

I've devised a directional synthing (not desynthing like you're doing) to do with my husband. Conducting the experiment with someone else at the same time eliminates most of the time- and weather- related variables.

Experiment synthing Antidotes

Control Test (just to verify no difference based on race/gender/equip):

Me: facing Light direction (NE)
Hubby: facing Light direction (NE)

If our set of NQ, HQ, and break % aren't the same (within error margins), there must be a difference due to race/gender/equip. Both of us will have Alchemy at the same exact skill level.

Experimental Data

Me: facing Light direction (NE) always
Hubby: facing each of the other directions in turn (ie 100 synths facing East, 100 synths facing SE, etc)

The experimental NQ, HQ, and break % are normalized against the percentages from facing the Light direction. This eliminates the need to synth always on a certain moon phase or day.

I figured the cost would be a minimum of 500k for materials and a minimum of 8 hours testing. I'm working on some other tests right now so if someone else beats me to it, please do!

[Macht]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

Directional synthing has always been of interest to me.

I've devised a directional synthing (not desynthing like you're doing) to do with my husband. Conducting the experiment with someone else at the same time eliminates most of the time- and weather- related variables.

Experiment synthing Antidotes

Control Test (just to verify no difference based on race/gender/equip):

Me: facing Light direction (NE)
Hubby: facing Light direction (NE)

If our set of NQ, HQ, and break % aren't the same (within error margins), there must be a difference due to race/gender/equip. Both of us will have Alchemy at the same exact skill level.

Experimental Data

Me: facing Light direction (NE) always
Hubby: facing each of the other directions in turn (ie 100 synths facing East, 100 synths facing SE, etc)

The experimental NQ, HQ, and break % are normalized against the percentages from facing the Light direction. This eliminates the need to synth always on a certain moon phase or day.

I figured the cost would be a minimum of 500k for materials and a minimum of 8 hours testing. I'm working on some other tests right now so if someone else beats me to it, please do!

Crude, but precise method of just straight out testing directionals. You'll have to make sure though that it's the same synthesis during the whole testing and with eachother, and same equipment you both wear when you were facing towards Light direction and one facing away from it.

Other thing to check to though is the synth amount you both do towards it and with one away. The one that faces towards Light direction the whole time you'll want to see if they maintain that percentage through-out. If the one facing varries to greatly it makes the control imperfect and results useless.

[sevenpointflaw]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

Directional synthing has always been of interest to me.

I've devised a directional synthing (not desynthing like you're doing) to do with my husband. Conducting the experiment with someone else at the same time eliminates most of the time- and weather- related variables.

Experiment synthing Antidotes

Control Test (just to verify no difference based on race/gender/equip):

Me: facing Light direction (NE)
Hubby: facing Light direction (NE)

If our set of NQ, HQ, and break % aren't the same (within error margins), there must be a difference due to race/gender/equip. Both of us will have Alchemy at the same exact skill level.

Experimental Data

Me: facing Light direction (NE) always
Hubby: facing each of the other directions in turn (ie 100 synths facing East, 100 synths facing SE, etc)

The experimental NQ, HQ, and break % are normalized against the percentages from facing the Light direction. This eliminates the need to synth always on a certain moon phase or day.

I figured the cost would be a minimum of 500k for materials and a minimum of 8 hours testing. I'm working on some other tests right now so if someone else beats me to it, please do!

The biggest complaint I've found people have when analyzing any data is that there is never enough data. I highly reccomend taking the time to go find a synth that turns at least a marginal profrit without having to farm ingredients other than clusters, so that 1.) you turn a profit instead of a loss, 2.) have insentive to go totally overaboard and aquire more data than people expect.

[Taskmage]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

Tsurara is a really good test synth if you have 60 alchemy. It sells for a profit albiet very slowly, and you can compress 60+ synths of results into a single inventory slot by making them into toolbags.

[Nakti]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

You'll have to make sure though that it's the same synthesis during the whole testing and with eachother, and same equipment you both wear when you were facing towards Light direction and one facing away from it.

Good point. We'll both be using mules so it should be easy enough to keep them equipped with the same stuff and keep the Moghancement the same (ie Moghancement:None).

The one that faces towards Light direction the whole time you'll want to see if they maintain that percentage through-out. If the one facing varries to greatly it makes the control imperfect and results useless.

We'll be doing the synths at (more or less) the exact same time. That's one of the beauties of playing in the same room. So if the synth is going to be affected by the time of day or moon phase, it should affect the light-facing synth and non-light-facing synth equally. If there's some strange synergistic combo of Direction+Time/Phase hopefully it will become apparent and I'll have to adjust the experimental method.

The biggest complaint I've found people have when analyzing any data is that there is never enough data.

I have this complaint myself which is why I haven't "published" previous findings. It's not easy for just 1 or 2 people to test something. All I can do is focus the experiment as narrowly as possible and look for a "tendency".

I highly reccomend taking the time to go find a synth that turns at least a marginal profit without having to farm ingredients other than clusters, so that 1.) you turn a profit instead of a loss, 2.) have incentive to go totally overboard and aquire more data than people expect.

I'll probably do the experiment in multiple rounds. Go through the entire experiment with 50 synth sets per possible direction. Examine the data. If it's looking interesting one way or another, rinse and repeat a couple more times.

Tsurara is a really good test synth if you have 60 alchemy.

Hmmm. The main reason for going with Antidotes was that Water Crystals are easier to get (for me) either buying off AH or farming. Both our mules will be the same single-digit Alchemy skill level so few HQs are expected. Tsurara is an interesting alternative. I'll have to compare difficulty of getting ice clusters vs. extra cost for antidote ingredients. Both Tsurara and Antidotes have about the same level of profit I think. Neither my husband nor I play NIN, though. ><

I'm not likely to start this experiment soon, though. If I'm lucky, I'll have a chance by January! Maybe I'll run tests on both Tsurara and Antidotes since they use different crystals.

(I keep trying to rate people up and it says I have to spread the rep around.../sigh)

Edit: The test synth doesn't have to be Alchemy. Carrot Broth might be an option, too. Still plenty of time to decide...

[Taskmage]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

On Lakshmi, a stack of tsurara toolbags sells for 100k and only takes 5-6 ice clusters to make, which ran about 30k last time I checked. It does take pretty high alchemy to do, and sometimes you have to farm the clusters yourself, which takes a higher level character but can be a profitable activity itself. If you can do those things, it's very convenient for getting a large sample to test HQ rates, since you can sit by the toolbag NPC and craft for hours and end up with 4 stacks of product instead of 20 clogging up your inventory.

This is something I'd like to help with, but I've been on a leveling spree lately (which is very odd for me) and I don't want to break the momentum. Maybe when I hit 65 and take a break to save for torques I'll chip in with some data.

(I keep trying to rate people up and it says I have to spread the rep around.../sigh)

I have this same problem. All the people I think deserve a rate-up I've already approved of too recently.

[Myaku]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

While Tsurara is an actractive synth because of its inexpensive ease, I would recommend sticking with the Antidotes. I think that Water Crystal data would be much more valuable than Ice Crystal data. Sure, in theory, if everything works out, you should be able to adapt the data to different crystals based on their respecitve strengths and weaknesses, but if the data does not come out as expected, I think it will be more valuable to know when to synth with a Water Crystal as opposed to an Ice Crystal. Just my two gil, either way, I look forward to your results.

[sevenpointflaw]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

Just a little update for those following this test... I'm having to take a break for a few days. I was using the excuse that I need my buffer for dynamis, but the truth is I sorta of killed my cotton market. I netted well over 1mil doing my test so far, but the result is the cotton threads in Jeuno and Windurst are selling for about 15k a stack. I promised myself that if prices dropped that low I would let the market recover before flooding it with 50+ stacks a day again

Besides, I'm getting cotton for brains from doing all these synths @.@

Within a couple days I should be back to updating the data. ^^

[sevenpointflaw]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

Mostly just a personal note to remind myself to collect data to test the theory that Light/Fire/Thunder/Wind yields increass on Full moon and that Dark/Earth/Water/Ice yields increase on New Moon. Should be able to analyze the data for that theory to a small degree once I move on to my earth crystal tests (lightning being data for light group, earth being data for dark group).

[sevenpointflaw]

Re: Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

Okay. Added the data I collected last night and started adjusting the way the data is displayed a tiny bit. Anyhow, added the first bit of data collected on Watersday. At only 20 desynths its hard to make any conclusions really.

The real gem of last night's data was Windsday. A supposedly neutral day to lightning, I've completed 100 desynths on this day, which means if I am running tests and the in game times changes to windsday, I can start testing actual directions.

I still don't have data for Fire, Dark, or Earth days.